Recent human-induced atmospheric drying across Europe unprecedented in the last 400 years
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TREYDTE, Kerstin, Laibao LIU, Ryan S. PADRON, Elisabet MARTINEZ-SANCHO, Flurin BABST, David C. FRANK, Arthur GESSLER, Ansgar KAHMEN, Benjamin POULTER, Sonia I. SENEVIRATNE, Annemiek I. STEGEHUIS, Rob WILSON, Laia ANDREU-HAYLES, Roderick BALE, Zdzislaw BEDNARZ, Tatjana BOETTGER, Frank BERNINGER, Ulf BÜNTGEN (276 Německo, domácí), Valerie DAUX, Isabel DORADO-LINAN, Jan ESPER, Michael FRIEDRICH, Mary GAGEN, Michael GRABNER, Hakan GRUDD, Bjoern E GUNNARSSON, Emilia GUTIERREZ, Polona HAFNER, Marika HAUPT, Emmi HILASVUORI, Ingo HEINRICH, Gerhard HELLE, Risto JALKANEN, Hoegne JUNGNER, Maarit KALELA-BRUNDIN, Andreas KESSLER, Andreas KIRCHHEFER, Stephan KLESSE, Marek KRAPIEC, Tom LEVANIC, Markus LEUENBERGER, Hans W LINDERHOLM, Danny MCCARROLL, Valerie MASSON-DELMOTTE, Slawomira PAWELCZYK, Anna PAZDUR, Octavi PLANELLS, Rutile PUKIENE, Katja T RINNE-GARMSTON, Iain ROBERTSON, Antonio SARACINO, Matthias SAURER, Gerhard H SCHLESER, Kristina SEFTIGEN, Rolf T W SIEGWOLF, Eloni SONNINEN, Michel STIEVENARD, Elzbieta SZYCHOWSKA-KRAPIEC, Malgorzata SZYMASZEK, Luigi TODARO, John S WATERHOUSE, Martin WEIGL-KUSKA, Rosemarie B WEIGT, Rupert WIMMER, Ewan J WOODLEY, Adomas VITAS, Giles YOUNG a Neil J LOADER
The vapor pressure deficit reflects the difference between how much moisture the atmosphere could and actually does hold, a factor that fundamentally affects evapotranspiration, ecosystem functioning, and vegetation carbon uptake. Its spatial variability and long-term trends under natural versus human-influenced climate are poorly known despite being essential for predicting future effects on natural ecosystems and human societies such as crop yield, wildfires, and health. Here we combine regionally distinct reconstructions of pre-industrial summer vapor pressure deficit variability from Europe's largest oxygen-isotope network of tree-ring cellulose with observational records and Earth system model simulations with and without human forcing included. We demonstrate that an intensification of atmospheric drying during the recent decades across different European target regions is unprecedented in a pre-industrial context and that it is attributed to human influence with more than 98% probability. The magnitude of this trend is largest in Western and Central Europe, the Alps and Pyrenees region, and the smallest in southern Fennoscandia. In view of the extreme drought and compound events of the recent years, further atmospheric drying poses an enhanced risk to vegetation, specifically in the densely populated areas of the European temperate lowlands.
TREYDTE, Kerstin, Laibao LIU, Ryan S. PADRON, Elisabet MARTINEZ-SANCHO, Flurin BABST, David C. FRANK, Arthur GESSLER, Ansgar KAHMEN, Benjamin POULTER, Sonia I. SENEVIRATNE, Annemiek I. STEGEHUIS, Rob WILSON, Laia ANDREU-HAYLES, Roderick BALE, Zdzislaw BEDNARZ, Tatjana BOETTGER, Frank BERNINGER, Ulf BÜNTGEN, Valerie DAUX, Isabel DORADO-LINAN, Jan ESPER, Michael FRIEDRICH, Mary GAGEN, Michael GRABNER, Hakan GRUDD, Bjoern E GUNNARSSON, Emilia GUTIERREZ, Polona HAFNER, Marika HAUPT, Emmi HILASVUORI, Ingo HEINRICH, Gerhard HELLE, Risto JALKANEN, Hoegne JUNGNER, Maarit KALELA-BRUNDIN, Andreas KESSLER, Andreas KIRCHHEFER, Stephan KLESSE, Marek KRAPIEC, Tom LEVANIC, Markus LEUENBERGER, Hans W LINDERHOLM, Danny MCCARROLL, Valerie MASSON-DELMOTTE, Slawomira PAWELCZYK, Anna PAZDUR, Octavi PLANELLS, Rutile PUKIENE, Katja T RINNE-GARMSTON, Iain ROBERTSON, Antonio SARACINO, Matthias SAURER, Gerhard H SCHLESER, Kristina SEFTIGEN, Rolf T W SIEGWOLF, Eloni SONNINEN, Michel STIEVENARD, Elzbieta SZYCHOWSKA-KRAPIEC, Malgorzata SZYMASZEK, Luigi TODARO, John S WATERHOUSE, Martin WEIGL-KUSKA, Rosemarie B WEIGT, Rupert WIMMER, Ewan J WOODLEY, Adomas VITAS, Giles YOUNG a Neil J LOADER. Recent human-induced atmospheric drying across Europe unprecedented in the last 400 years. Nature Geoscience. Nature Portfolio, 2024, roč. 17, č. 1, s. 58-65, 18 s. ISSN 1752-0894. Dostupné z: https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01335-8.
@article{2364099, author = {Treydte, Kerstin and Liu, Laibao and Padron, Ryan S. and MartinezandSancho, Elisabet and Babst, Flurin and Frank, David C. and Gessler, Arthur and Kahmen, Ansgar and Poulter, Benjamin and Seneviratne, Sonia I. and Stegehuis, Annemiek I. and Wilson, Rob and AndreuandHayles, Laia and Bale, Roderick and Bednarz, Zdzislaw and Boettger, Tatjana and Berninger, Frank and Büntgen, Ulf and Daux, Valerie and DoradoandLinan, Isabel and Esper, Jan and Friedrich, Michael and Gagen, Mary and Grabner, Michael and Grudd, Hakan and Gunnarsson, Bjoern E and Gutierrez, Emilia and Hafner, Polona and Haupt, Marika and Hilasvuori, Emmi and Heinrich, Ingo and Helle, Gerhard and Jalkanen, Risto and Jungner, Hoegne and KalelaandBrundin, Maarit and Kessler, Andreas and Kirchhefer, Andreas and Klesse, Stephan and Krapiec, Marek and Levanic, Tom and Leuenberger, Markus and Linderholm, Hans W and Mccarroll, Danny and MassonandDelmotte, Valerie and Pawelczyk, Slawomira and Pazdur, Anna and Planells, Octavi and Pukiene, Rutile and RinneandGarmston, Katja T and Robertson, Iain and Saracino, Antonio and Saurer, Matthias and Schleser, Gerhard H and Seftigen, Kristina and Siegwolf, Rolf T W and Sonninen, Eloni and Stievenard, Michel and SzychowskaandKrapiec, Elzbieta and Szymaszek, Malgorzata and Todaro, Luigi and Waterhouse, John S and WeiglandKuska, Martin and Weigt, Rosemarie B and Wimmer, Rupert and Woodley, Ewan J and Vitas, Adomas and Young, Giles and Loader, Neil J}, article_number = {1}, doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01335-8}, keywords = {Attribution; Climate and Earth system modelling; Forest ecology; Palaeoclimate; Stable isotope analysis}, language = {eng}, issn = {1752-0894}, journal = {Nature Geoscience}, title = {Recent human-induced atmospheric drying across Europe unprecedented in the last 400 years}, url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01335-8}, volume = {17}, year = {2024} }
TY - JOUR ID - 2364099 AU - Treydte, Kerstin - Liu, Laibao - Padron, Ryan S. - Martinez-Sancho, Elisabet - Babst, Flurin - Frank, David C. - Gessler, Arthur - Kahmen, Ansgar - Poulter, Benjamin - Seneviratne, Sonia I. - Stegehuis, Annemiek I. - Wilson, Rob - Andreu-Hayles, Laia - Bale, Roderick - Bednarz, Zdzislaw - Boettger, Tatjana - Berninger, Frank - Büntgen, Ulf - Daux, Valerie - Dorado-Linan, Isabel - Esper, Jan - Friedrich, Michael - Gagen, Mary - Grabner, Michael - Grudd, Hakan - Gunnarsson, Bjoern E - Gutierrez, Emilia - Hafner, Polona - Haupt, Marika - Hilasvuori, Emmi - Heinrich, Ingo - Helle, Gerhard - Jalkanen, Risto - Jungner, Hoegne - Kalela-Brundin, Maarit - Kessler, Andreas - Kirchhefer, Andreas - Klesse, Stephan - Krapiec, Marek - Levanic, Tom - Leuenberger, Markus - Linderholm, Hans W - Mccarroll, Danny - Masson-Delmotte, Valerie - Pawelczyk, Slawomira - Pazdur, Anna - Planells, Octavi - Pukiene, Rutile - Rinne-Garmston, Katja T - Robertson, Iain - Saracino, Antonio - Saurer, Matthias - Schleser, Gerhard H - Seftigen, Kristina - Siegwolf, Rolf T W - Sonninen, Eloni - Stievenard, Michel - Szychowska-Krapiec, Elzbieta - Szymaszek, Malgorzata - Todaro, Luigi - Waterhouse, John S - Weigl-Kuska, Martin - Weigt, Rosemarie B - Wimmer, Rupert - Woodley, Ewan J - Vitas, Adomas - Young, Giles - Loader, Neil J PY - 2024 TI - Recent human-induced atmospheric drying across Europe unprecedented in the last 400 years JF - Nature Geoscience VL - 17 IS - 1 SP - 58-65 EP - 58-65 PB - Nature Portfolio SN - 17520894 KW - Attribution KW - Climate and Earth system modelling KW - Forest ecology KW - Palaeoclimate KW - Stable isotope analysis UR - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01335-8 N2 - The vapor pressure deficit reflects the difference between how much moisture the atmosphere could and actually does hold, a factor that fundamentally affects evapotranspiration, ecosystem functioning, and vegetation carbon uptake. Its spatial variability and long-term trends under natural versus human-influenced climate are poorly known despite being essential for predicting future effects on natural ecosystems and human societies such as crop yield, wildfires, and health. Here we combine regionally distinct reconstructions of pre-industrial summer vapor pressure deficit variability from Europe's largest oxygen-isotope network of tree-ring cellulose with observational records and Earth system model simulations with and without human forcing included. We demonstrate that an intensification of atmospheric drying during the recent decades across different European target regions is unprecedented in a pre-industrial context and that it is attributed to human influence with more than 98% probability. The magnitude of this trend is largest in Western and Central Europe, the Alps and Pyrenees region, and the smallest in southern Fennoscandia. In view of the extreme drought and compound events of the recent years, further atmospheric drying poses an enhanced risk to vegetation, specifically in the densely populated areas of the European temperate lowlands. ER -
TREYDTE, Kerstin, Laibao LIU, Ryan S. PADRON, Elisabet MARTINEZ-SANCHO, Flurin BABST, David C. FRANK, Arthur GESSLER, Ansgar KAHMEN, Benjamin POULTER, Sonia I. SENEVIRATNE, Annemiek I. STEGEHUIS, Rob WILSON, Laia ANDREU-HAYLES, Roderick BALE, Zdzislaw BEDNARZ, Tatjana BOETTGER, Frank BERNINGER, Ulf BÜNTGEN, Valerie DAUX, Isabel DORADO-LINAN, Jan ESPER, Michael FRIEDRICH, Mary GAGEN, Michael GRABNER, Hakan GRUDD, Bjoern E GUNNARSSON, Emilia GUTIERREZ, Polona HAFNER, Marika HAUPT, Emmi HILASVUORI, Ingo HEINRICH, Gerhard HELLE, Risto JALKANEN, Hoegne JUNGNER, Maarit KALELA-BRUNDIN, Andreas KESSLER, Andreas KIRCHHEFER, Stephan KLESSE, Marek KRAPIEC, Tom LEVANIC, Markus LEUENBERGER, Hans W LINDERHOLM, Danny MCCARROLL, Valerie MASSON-DELMOTTE, Slawomira PAWELCZYK, Anna PAZDUR, Octavi PLANELLS, Rutile PUKIENE, Katja T RINNE-GARMSTON, Iain ROBERTSON, Antonio SARACINO, Matthias SAURER, Gerhard H SCHLESER, Kristina SEFTIGEN, Rolf T W SIEGWOLF, Eloni SONNINEN, Michel STIEVENARD, Elzbieta SZYCHOWSKA-KRAPIEC, Malgorzata SZYMASZEK, Luigi TODARO, John S WATERHOUSE, Martin WEIGL-KUSKA, Rosemarie B WEIGT, Rupert WIMMER, Ewan J WOODLEY, Adomas VITAS, Giles YOUNG a Neil J LOADER. Recent human-induced atmospheric drying across Europe unprecedented in the last 400 years. \textit{Nature Geoscience}. Nature Portfolio, 2024, roč.~17, č.~1, s.~58-65, 18 s. ISSN~1752-0894. Dostupné z: https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41561-023-01335-8.