Detailed Information on Publication Record
2024
Plant invasion in Mediterranean Europe: current hotspots and future scenarios
CAO PINNA, Luigi, Laure GALLIEN, Laura J. POLLOCK, Irena AXMANOVÁ, Milan CHYTRÝ et. al.Basic information
Original name
Plant invasion in Mediterranean Europe: current hotspots and future scenarios
Authors
CAO PINNA, Luigi (guarantor), Laure GALLIEN, Laura J. POLLOCK, Irena AXMANOVÁ (203 Czech Republic, belonging to the institution), Milan CHYTRÝ (203 Czech Republic, belonging to the institution), Marco MALAVASI, Alicia T. R. ACOSTA, Juan ANTONIO CAMPOS and Marta CARBONI
Edition
Ecography, HOBOKEN, Munksgaard, 2024, 0906-7590
Other information
Language
English
Type of outcome
Článek v odborném periodiku
Field of Study
10619 Biodiversity conservation
Country of publisher
United States of America
Confidentiality degree
není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství
References:
Impact factor
Impact factor: 5.900 in 2022
Organization unit
Faculty of Science
UT WoS
001178064700001
Keywords in English
alien plant invasion; climate change; future scenarios; hotspots; invasive species; Mediterranean; spatial predictions; species distribution models (SDMs)
Tags
International impact, Reviewed
Změněno: 9/5/2024 14:44, Mgr. Lucie Jarošová, DiS.
Abstract
V originále
The Mediterranean Basin has historically been subject to alien plant invasions that threaten its unique biodiversity. This seasonally dry and densely populated region is undergoing severe climatic and socioeconomic changes, and it is unclear whether these changes will worsen or mitigate plant invasions. Predictions are often biased, as species may not be in equilibrium in the invaded environment, depending on their invasion stage and ecological characteristics. To address future predictions uncertainty, we identified invasion hotspots across multiple biased modelling scenarios and ecological characteristics of successful invaders. We selected 92 alien plant species widespread in Mediterranean Europe and compiled data on their distribution in the Mediterranean and worldwide. We combined these data with environmental and propagule pressure variables to model global and regional species niches, and map their current and future habitat suitability. We identified invasion hotspots, examined their potential future shifts, and compared the results of different modelling strategies. Finally, we generalised our findings by using linear models to determine the traits and biogeographic features of invaders most likely to benefit from global change. Currently, invasion hotspots are found near ports and coastlines throughout Mediterranean Europe. However, many species occupy only a small portion of the environmental conditions to which they are preadapted, suggesting that their invasion is still an ongoing process. Future conditions will lead to declines in many currently widespread aliens, which will tend to move to higher elevations and latitudes. Our trait models indicate that future climates will generally favour species with conservative ecological strategies that can cope with reduced water availability, such as those with short stature and low specific leaf area. Taken together, our results suggest that in future environments, these conservative aliens will move farther from the introduction areas and upslope, threatening mountain ecosystems that have been spared from invasions so far.
Links
| GX19-28491X, research and development project |
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