Forecasting extremely high ischemic stroke incidence using
meteorological time serie

J 2024

Forecasting extremely high ischemic stroke incidence using meteorological time serie

BABALOVA, Lucia, Marian GRENDAR, Egon KURCA, Stefan SIVAK, Ema KANTOROVA et. al.

Základní údaje

Originální název

Forecasting extremely high ischemic stroke incidence using meteorological time serie

Autoři

Vydání

Plos one, San Francisco, Public Library of Science, 2024, 1932-6203

Další údaje

Jazyk

angličtina

Typ výsledku

Článek v odborném periodiku

Obor

30210 Clinical neurology

Stát vydavatele

Spojené státy

Utajení

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Odkazy

URL

Impakt faktor

Impact factor: 3.700 v roce 2022

Organizační jednotka

Lékařská fakulta

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0310018

UT WoS

001310339200002

Klíčová slova anglicky

ischemic stroke; forecasting; meteorological time serie

Štítky

14110127, rivok

Příznaky

Mezinárodní význam, Recenzováno

Změněno: 1. 10. 2024 10:54, Mgr. Tereza Miškechová

Anotace

V originále

Motivation The association between weather conditions and stroke incidence has been a subject of interest for several years, yet the findings from various studies remain inconsistent. Additionally, predictive modelling in this context has been infrequent. This study explores the relationship of extremely high ischaemic stroke incidence and meteorological factors within the Slovak population. Furthermore, it aims to construct forecasting models of extremely high number of strokes.Methods Over a five-year period, a total of 52,036 cases of ischemic stroke were documented. Days exhibiting a notable surge in ischemic stroke occurrences (surpassing the 90th percentile of historical records) were identified as extreme cases. These cases were then scrutinized alongside daily meteorological parameters spanning from 2015 to 2019. To create forecasts for the occurrence of these extreme cases one day in advance, three distinct methods were employed: Logistic regression, Random Forest for Time Series, and Croston's method.Results For each of the analyzed stroke centers, the cross-correlations between instances of extremely high stroke numbers and meteorological factors yielded negligible results. Predictive performance achieved by forecasts generated through multivariate logistic regression and Random Forest for time series analysis, which incorporated meteorological data, was on par with that of Croston's method. Notably, Croston's method relies solely on the stroke time series data. All three forecasting methods exhibited limited predictive accuracy.Conclusions The task of predicting days characterized by an exceptionally high number of strokes proved to be challenging across all three explored methods. The inclusion of meteorological parameters did not yield substantive improvements in forecasting accuracy.

Citovat

BABALOVA, Lucia, Marian GRENDAR, Egon KURCA, Stefan SIVAK, Ema KANTOROVA, Katarina MIKULOVA, Pavel STASTNY, Pavel FASKO, Kristina SZABOOVA, Peter KUBATKA, Slavomir NOSAL, Robert MIKULÍK a Vladimir NOSAL. Forecasting extremely high ischemic stroke incidence using meteorological time serie. Plos one. San Francisco: Public Library of Science, 2024, roč. 19, č. 9, s. 1-26. ISSN 1932-6203. Dostupné z: https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0310018.

@article{2439081,
   author = {Babalova, Lucia and Grendar, Marian and Kurca, Egon and Sivak, Stefan and Kantorova, Ema and Mikulova, Katarina and Stastny, Pavel and Fasko, Pavel and Szaboova, Kristina and Kubatka, Peter and Nosal, Slavomir and Mikulík, Robert and Nosal, Vladimir},
   article_location = {San Francisco},
   article_number = {9},
   doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0310018},
   keywords = {ischemic stroke; forecasting; meteorological time serie},
   language = {eng},
   issn = {1932-6203},
   journal = {Plos one},
   title = {Forecasting extremely high ischemic stroke incidence using meteorological time serie},
   url = {https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0310018},
   volume = {19},
   year = {2024}
}

TY  - JOUR
ID  - 2439081
AU  - Babalova, Lucia - Grendar, Marian - Kurca, Egon - Sivak, Stefan - Kantorova, Ema - Mikulova, Katarina - Stastny, Pavel - Fasko, Pavel - Szaboova, Kristina - Kubatka, Peter - Nosal, Slavomir - Mikulík, Robert - Nosal, Vladimir
PY  - 2024
TI  - Forecasting extremely high ischemic stroke incidence using meteorological time serie
JF  - Plos one
VL  - 19
IS  - 9
SP  - 1-26
EP  - 1-26
PB  - Public Library of Science
SN  - 19326203
KW  - ischemic stroke
KW  - forecasting
KW  - meteorological time serie
UR  - https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0310018
N2  - Motivation The association between weather conditions and stroke incidence has been a subject of interest for several years, yet the findings from various studies remain inconsistent. Additionally, predictive modelling in this context has been infrequent. This study explores the relationship of extremely high ischaemic stroke incidence and meteorological factors within the Slovak population. Furthermore, it aims to construct forecasting models of extremely high number of strokes.Methods Over a five-year period, a total of 52,036 cases of ischemic stroke were documented. Days exhibiting a notable surge in ischemic stroke occurrences (surpassing the 90th percentile of historical records) were identified as extreme cases. These cases were then scrutinized alongside daily meteorological parameters spanning from 2015 to 2019. To create forecasts for the occurrence of these extreme cases one day in advance, three distinct methods were employed: Logistic regression, Random Forest for Time Series, and Croston's method.Results For each of the analyzed stroke centers, the cross-correlations between instances of extremely high stroke numbers and meteorological factors yielded negligible results. Predictive performance achieved by forecasts generated through multivariate logistic regression and Random Forest for time series analysis, which incorporated meteorological data, was on par with that of Croston's method. Notably, Croston's method relies solely on the stroke time series data. All three forecasting methods exhibited limited predictive accuracy.Conclusions The task of predicting days characterized by an exceptionally high number of strokes proved to be challenging across all three explored methods. The inclusion of meteorological parameters did not yield substantive improvements in forecasting accuracy.
ER  -

BABALOVA, Lucia, Marian GRENDAR, Egon KURCA, Stefan SIVAK, Ema KANTOROVA, Katarina MIKULOVA, Pavel STASTNY, Pavel FASKO, Kristina SZABOOVA, Peter KUBATKA, Slavomir NOSAL, Robert MIKULÍK a Vladimir NOSAL. Forecasting extremely high ischemic stroke incidence using meteorological time serie. \textit{Plos one}. San Francisco: Public Library of Science, 2024, roč.~19, č.~9, s.~1-26. ISSN~1932-6203. Dostupné z: https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0310018.

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