IPECAD Modeling Workshop 2023 Cross-Comparison Challenge on
Cost-Effectiveness Models in Alzheimer’s Disease

J 2025

IPECAD Modeling Workshop 2023 Cross-Comparison Challenge on Cost-Effectiveness Models in Alzheimer’s Disease

HANDELS, Ron; William L. HERRING; Farzam KAMGAR; Sandar AYE; Ashley TATE et. al.

Základní údaje

Originální název

IPECAD Modeling Workshop 2023 Cross-Comparison Challenge on Cost-Effectiveness Models in Alzheimer’s Disease

Autoři

Vydání

Value in Health, UNITED STATES, ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC, 2025, 1098-3015

Další údaje

Jazyk

angličtina

Typ výsledku

Článek v odborném periodiku

Obor

30304 Public and environmental health

Stát vydavatele

Spojené státy

Utajení

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Odkazy

URL

Impakt faktor

Impact factor: 6.000 v roce 2024

Organizační jednotka

Ekonomicko-správní fakulta

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jval.2024.09.006

UT WoS

001490012200001

EID Scopus

2-s2.0-85210103561

Klíčová slova anglicky

Alzheimer’s disease; decision-analytic modeling; health-economic evaluation; cross-validation

Štítky

rivok

Příznaky

Mezinárodní význam, Recenzováno

Změněno: 16. 6. 2025 15:21, Mgr. Alžběta Karolyiová

Anotace

V originále

Objectives Decision-analytic models assessing the value of emerging Alzheimer’s disease (AD) treatments are challenged by limited evidence on short-term trial outcomes and uncertainty in extrapolating long-term patient-relevant outcomes. To improve understanding and foster transparency and credibility in modeling methods, we cross-compared AD decision models in a hypothetical context of disease-modifying treatment for mild cognitive impairment (MCI) due to AD. Methods A benchmark scenario (US setting) was used with target population MCI due to AD and a set of synthetically generated hypothetical trial efficacy estimates. Treatment costs were excluded. Model predictions (10-year horizon) were assessed and discussed during a 2-day workshop. Results Nine modeling groups provided model predictions. Implementation of treatment effectiveness varied across models based on trial efficacy outcome selection (CDR-SB, CDR-global, MMSE, FAQ) and analysis method (observed severity transitions, change from baseline, progression hazard ratio, or calibration to these). Predicted mean time in MCI ranged from 2.6-5.2 years for control strategy, and from 0.1-1.0 years for difference between intervention and control strategies. Predicted quality-adjusted life-year gains ranged from 0.0-0.6 and incremental costs (excluding treatment costs) from -USD 66,897 to USD 11,896. Conclusions Trial data can be implemented in different ways across health-economic models leading to large variation in model predictions. We recommend 1) addressing the choice of outcome measure and treatment effectiveness assumptions in sensitivity analysis, 2) a standardized reporting table for model predictions, and 3) exploring the use of registries for future AD treatments measuring long-term disease progression to reduce uncertainty of extrapolating short-term trial results by health economic models.

Přiložené soubory

1-s2.0-S1098301524028572-main.pdf

Citovat

HANDELS, Ron; William L. HERRING; Farzam KAMGAR; Sandar AYE; Ashley TATE; Colin GREEN; Anders GUSTAVSSON; Anders WIMO; Bengt WINBLAD; Anders SKÖLDUNGER; Lars Lau RAKET; Chelsea BEDREJO STELLICK; Eldon SPACKMAN; Jakub HLÁVKA; Yifan WEI; Javier MAR; Myriam SOTO-GORDOA; Inge DE KOK; Chiara BRÜCK; Robert ANDERSON; Peter PEMBERTON-ROSS; Michael URBICH a Linus JÖNSSON. IPECAD Modeling Workshop 2023 Cross-Comparison Challenge on Cost-Effectiveness Models in Alzheimer’s Disease. Value in Health. UNITED STATES: ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC, 2025, roč. 28, č. 4, s. 497-510, 34 s. ISSN 1098-3015. Dostupné z: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jval.2024.09.006.

@article{2443166,
   author = {Handels, Ron and Herring, William L. and Kamgar, Farzam and Aye, Sandar and Tate, Ashley and Green, Colin and Gustavsson, Anders and Wimo, Anders and Winblad, Bengt and Sköldunger, Anders and Raket, Lars Lau and Bedrejo Stellick, Chelsea and Spackman, Eldon and Hlávka, Jakub and Wei, Yifan and Mar, Javier and SotoandGordoa, Myriam and de Kok, Inge and Brück, Chiara and Anderson, Robert and PembertonandRoss, Peter and Urbich, Michael and Jönsson, Linus},
   article_location = {UNITED STATES},
   article_number = {4},
   doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jval.2024.09.006},
   keywords = {Alzheimer’s disease; decision-analytic modeling; health-economic evaluation; cross-validation},
   language = {eng},
   issn = {1098-3015},
   journal = {Value in Health},
   title = {IPECAD Modeling Workshop 2023 Cross-Comparison Challenge on Cost-Effectiveness Models in Alzheimer’s Disease},
   url = {https://www.valueinhealthjournal.com/article/S1098-3015(24)02857-2/fulltext?_returnURL=https%3A%2F%2Flinkinghub.elsevier.com%2Fretrieve%2Fpii%2FS1098301524028572%3Fshowall%3Dtrue},
   volume = {28},
   year = {2025}
}

TY  - JOUR
ID  - 2443166
AU  - Handels, Ron - Herring, William L. - Kamgar, Farzam - Aye, Sandar - Tate, Ashley - Green, Colin - Gustavsson, Anders - Wimo, Anders - Winblad, Bengt - Sköldunger, Anders - Raket, Lars Lau - Bedrejo Stellick, Chelsea - Spackman, Eldon - Hlávka, Jakub - Wei, Yifan - Mar, Javier - Soto-Gordoa, Myriam - de Kok, Inge - Brück, Chiara - Anderson, Robert - Pemberton-Ross, Peter - Urbich, Michael - Jönsson, Linus
PY  - 2025
TI  - IPECAD Modeling Workshop 2023 Cross-Comparison Challenge on Cost-Effectiveness Models in Alzheimer’s Disease
JF  - Value in Health
VL  - 28
IS  - 4
SP  - 497-510
EP  - 497-510
PB  - ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
SN  - 10983015
KW  - Alzheimer’s disease
KW  - decision-analytic modeling
KW  - health-economic evaluation
KW  - cross-validation
UR  - https://www.valueinhealthjournal.com/article/S1098-3015(24)02857-2/fulltext?_returnURL=https%3A%2F%2Flinkinghub.elsevier.com%2Fretrieve%2Fpii%2FS1098301524028572%3Fshowall%3Dtrue
N2  - Objectives Decision-analytic models assessing the value of emerging Alzheimer’s disease (AD) treatments are challenged by limited evidence on short-term trial outcomes and uncertainty in extrapolating long-term patient-relevant outcomes. To improve understanding and foster transparency and credibility in modeling methods, we cross-compared AD decision models in a hypothetical context of disease-modifying treatment for mild cognitive impairment (MCI) due to AD. Methods A benchmark scenario (US setting) was used with target population MCI due to AD and a set of synthetically generated hypothetical trial efficacy estimates. Treatment costs were excluded. Model predictions (10-year horizon) were assessed and discussed during a 2-day workshop. Results Nine modeling groups provided model predictions. Implementation of treatment effectiveness varied across models based on trial efficacy outcome selection (CDR-SB, CDR-global, MMSE, FAQ) and analysis method (observed severity transitions, change from baseline, progression hazard ratio, or calibration to these). Predicted mean time in MCI ranged from 2.6-5.2 years for control strategy, and from 0.1-1.0 years for difference between intervention and control strategies. Predicted quality-adjusted life-year gains ranged from 0.0-0.6 and incremental costs (excluding treatment costs) from -USD 66,897 to USD 11,896. Conclusions Trial data can be implemented in different ways across health-economic models leading to large variation in model predictions. We recommend 1) addressing the choice of outcome measure and treatment effectiveness assumptions in sensitivity analysis, 2) a standardized reporting table for model predictions, and 3) exploring the use of registries for future AD treatments measuring long-term disease progression to reduce uncertainty of extrapolating short-term trial results by health economic models.
ER  -

HANDELS, Ron; William L. HERRING; Farzam KAMGAR; Sandar AYE; Ashley TATE; Colin GREEN; Anders GUSTAVSSON; Anders WIMO; Bengt WINBLAD; Anders SKÖLDUNGER; Lars Lau RAKET; Chelsea BEDREJO STELLICK; Eldon SPACKMAN; Jakub HLÁVKA; Yifan WEI; Javier MAR; Myriam SOTO-GORDOA; Inge DE KOK; Chiara BRÜCK; Robert ANDERSON; Peter PEMBERTON-ROSS; Michael URBICH a Linus JÖNSSON. IPECAD Modeling Workshop 2023 Cross-Comparison Challenge on Cost-Effectiveness Models in Alzheimer’s Disease. \textit{Value in Health}. UNITED STATES: ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC, 2025, roč.~28, č.~4, s.~497-510, 34 s. ISSN~1098-3015. Dostupné z: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jval.2024.09.006.

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