2025
Comparative SIR/SEIR modeling of the Antonine Plague in Rome
KARASARIDIS, Anestis a Aleš CHALUPAZákladní údaje
Originální název
Comparative SIR/SEIR modeling of the Antonine Plague in Rome
Název česky
Komparativní SIR/SEIR modelování antoninovského moru v Římě
Autoři
Vydání
PLOS ONE, San Francisco, PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE, 2025, 1932-6203
Další údaje
Jazyk
angličtina
Typ výsledku
Článek v odborném periodiku
Obor
60304 Religious studies
Stát vydavatele
Spojené státy
Utajení
není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství
Odkazy
Impakt faktor
Impact factor: 2.600 v roce 2024
Označené pro přenos do RIV
Ano
Kód RIV
RIV/00216224:14210/25:00140647
Organizační jednotka
Filozofická fakulta
UT WoS
EID Scopus
Klíčová slova česky
antoninovský mor; modelování infekčních onemocnění; 2. století n.l.; výpočetní historiografie; Řím
Klíčová slova anglicky
Antonine Plague; Infectious disease modeling; 2nd century CE; computational historiography; Rome
Štítky
Příznaky
Mezinárodní význam, Recenzováno
Změněno: 7. 4. 2026 08:50, Mgr. Ester Gaja Pučálková, Ph.D.
Anotace
V originále
Some scholars consider the Antonine Plague to have been a major disease outbreak in the 2nd century CE that caused a significant decline in the population of the Roman Empire. Although there is currently no molecular evidence of the specific pathogen, literary evidence indicates the parameters of the disease that it caused and how significant the impact on Roman society was. One way to advance the current discussion concerning the Antonine Plague’s impact on the Roman Empire’s population is to examine the currently available sources and comparatively model the spread of different pathogens in a specific location with known demographic data for the relevant period. To accomplish this, we developed a series of dynamic ordinary differential equation models of the spread of disease in Rome between 165 and 189 CE for several pathogens. We found that daily disease deaths in the final years of the pandemic were inconsistent with estimates reported in primary sources, suggesting that either (a) the impact of the Antonine Plague may have been exaggerated in the descriptions of ancient authors, or (b) the daily deaths in ca. 189 CE were caused by a different disease event than the Antonine Plague, or (c) seasonality might have been a significant factor changing the intensity of disease spread, with the population more severely affected during the winter months. Although none of the pathogens we analyzed emerged as the likely causative agent of the Antonine Plague, the models show that the overall mortality rate would have increased maximally by 7%. This result contradicts the mortality rate accepted by historians who defend the thesis of the significant impact of this epidemic on the demography of the Roman Empire.
Návaznosti
| CZ.02.01.01/00/22_008/0004595, interní kód MU |
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| EF19_073/0016943, projekt VaV |
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| EH22_008/0004595, projekt VaV |
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| MUNI/IGA/1335/2020, interní kód MU |
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