Seasonal synchronization and unpredictability in epidemic
models with waning immunity and healthcare thresholds

J 2025

Seasonal synchronization and unpredictability in epidemic models with waning immunity and healthcare thresholds

ECLEROVÁ, Veronika; Deeptajyoti SEN a Lenka PŘIBYLOVÁ

Základní údaje

Originální název

Seasonal synchronization and unpredictability in epidemic models with waning immunity and healthcare thresholds

Autoři

ECLEROVÁ, Veronika; Deeptajyoti SEN a Lenka PŘIBYLOVÁ

Vydání

Scientific Reports, Nature Portfolio, 2025, 2045-2322

Další údaje

Jazyk

angličtina

Typ výsledku

Článek v odborném periodiku

Obor

10100 1.1 Mathematics

Stát vydavatele

Německo

Utajení

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Odkazy

URL, URL

Impakt faktor

Impact factor: 3.900 v roce 2024

Označené pro přenos do RIV

Ano

Kód RIV

RIV/00216224:14310/25:00141183

Organizační jednotka

Přírodovědecká fakulta

Klíčová slova anglicky

SIRS model; Seasonality; Bifurcation; Chaos; Quasiperiodicity

Štítky

14311010, rivok

Příznaky

Mezinárodní význam, Recenzováno

Změněno: 29. 5. 2025 09:20, Mgr. Marie Novosadová Šípková, DiS.

Anotace

V originále

This paper explores a model integrating healthcare capacity thresholds and seasonal effects to investigate the synchronization of epidemic cycles with seasonal transmission rates, using parameters reflective of the COVID-19 pandemic. Through bifurcation analysis in the epi-seasonal domain, we identify regions of significant seasonal synchronization related to transmission rate fluctuations, waning immunity, and healthcare capacity thresholds. The model highlights four sources of unpredictability: chaotic regimes, quasiperiodicity, proximity to SNIC or transcritical bifurcations, and bistability. Our findings reveal that chaotic regimes are more predictable than quasiperiodic regimes in epidemiological terms. Synchronizing outbreaks with seasonal cycles, even in chaotic regimes, predominantly results in significant winter outbreaks. Conversely, quasiperiodicity allows outbreaks to occur at any time of the year. Near eradication unpredictability aligns with historical pertussis data, underscoring the model’s relevance to real-world epidemics and vaccine schedules. Additionally, we identify a bistability region with potential for abrupt shifts in disease prevalence, triggered by superspreading events or migration.

Návaznosti

101063853, interní kód MU

Název: Models with cross-interactions between partial dynamical processes aiming to understand significant or abrupt dynamic changes. (Akronym: CrossInteractions)

Investor: Evropská unie, Models with cross-interactions between partial dynamical processes aiming to understand significant or abrupt dynamic changes., Marie Skłodowska-Curie Postdoctoral Fellowships (MSCA PF)

Přiložené soubory

2497758.pdf

Citovat

ECLEROVÁ, Veronika; Deeptajyoti SEN a Lenka PŘIBYLOVÁ. Seasonal synchronization and unpredictability in epidemic models with waning immunity and healthcare thresholds. Scientific Reports. Nature Portfolio, 2025, roč. 15, č. 1, s. 1-20. ISSN 2045-2322. Dostupné z: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-01467-4.

@article{2497758,
   author = {Eclerová, Veronika and Sen, Deeptajyoti and Přibylová, Lenka},
   article_number = {1},
   doi = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-01467-4},
   keywords = {SIRS model; Seasonality; Bifurcation; Chaos; Quasiperiodicity},
   language = {eng},
   issn = {2045-2322},
   journal = {Scientific Reports},
   title = {Seasonal synchronization and unpredictability in epidemic models with waning immunity and healthcare thresholds},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-01467-4},
   volume = {15},
   year = {2025}
}

TY  - JOUR
ID  - 2497758
AU  - Eclerová, Veronika - Sen, Deeptajyoti - Přibylová, Lenka
PY  - 2025
TI  - Seasonal synchronization and unpredictability in epidemic models with waning immunity and healthcare thresholds
JF  - Scientific Reports
VL  - 15
IS  - 1
SP  - 1-20
EP  - 1-20
PB  - Nature Portfolio
SN  - 20452322
KW  - SIRS model
KW  - Seasonality
KW  - Bifurcation
KW  - Chaos
KW  - Quasiperiodicity
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-01467-4
N2  - This paper explores a model integrating healthcare capacity thresholds and seasonal effects to investigate the synchronization of epidemic cycles with seasonal transmission rates, using parameters reflective of the COVID-19 pandemic. Through bifurcation analysis in the epi-seasonal domain, we identify regions of significant seasonal synchronization related to transmission rate fluctuations, waning immunity, and healthcare capacity thresholds. The model highlights four sources of unpredictability: chaotic regimes, quasiperiodicity, proximity to SNIC or transcritical bifurcations, and bistability. Our findings reveal that chaotic regimes are more predictable than quasiperiodic regimes in epidemiological terms. Synchronizing outbreaks with seasonal cycles, even in chaotic regimes, predominantly results in significant winter outbreaks. Conversely, quasiperiodicity allows outbreaks to occur at any time of the year. Near eradication unpredictability aligns with historical pertussis data, underscoring the model’s relevance to real-world epidemics and vaccine schedules. Additionally, we identify a bistability region with potential for abrupt shifts in disease prevalence, triggered by superspreading events or migration.
ER  -

ECLEROVÁ, Veronika; Deeptajyoti SEN a Lenka PŘIBYLOVÁ. Seasonal synchronization and unpredictability in epidemic models with waning immunity and healthcare thresholds. \textit{Scientific Reports}. Nature Portfolio, 2025, roč.~15, č.~1, s.~1-20. ISSN~2045-2322. Dostupné z: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-01467-4.

Přehled o publikaci