Household income expectations: The role of unexpected income
changes and aggregate conditions

J 2025

Household income expectations: The role of unexpected income changes and aggregate conditions

BUCCIOL, Alessandro; Joshy EASAW a Serena TRUCCHI

Základní údaje

Originální název

Household income expectations: The role of unexpected income changes and aggregate conditions

Autoři

BUCCIOL, Alessandro; Joshy EASAW a Serena TRUCCHI

Vydání

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, AMSTERDAM, ELSEVIER, 2025, 0167-2681

Další údaje

Jazyk

angličtina

Typ výsledku

Článek v odborném periodiku

Obor

50200 5.2 Economics and Business

Stát vydavatele

Nizozemské království

Utajení

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Odkazy

URL

Impakt faktor

Impact factor: 2.300 v roce 2024

Označené pro přenos do RIV

Ano

Kód RIV

RIV/00216224:14560/25:00141347

Organizační jednotka

Ekonomicko-správní fakulta

Klíčová slova anglicky

Income expectations; Expectation uncertainty; Expectation error; Unexpected income changes; Aggregate conditions

Štítky

rivok

Příznaky

Mezinárodní význam, Recenzováno

Změněno: 27. 11. 2025 10:41, Mgr. Alžběta Karolyiová

Anotace

V originále

We analyse how unexpected income changes and aggregate conditions influence income expectations, their uncertainty, and expectation errors. We use a uniquely rich longitudinal Dutch survey collecting detailed information on the distribution of household income expectations. Our results show that unexpected income changes, much more than aggregate conditions, induce a revision in income expectations across the entire spectrum of the expected income distribution, consistent with extrapolative behaviour. We also document that unexpected income changes increase the uncertainty about future income. Our results provide some evidence of over-reaction, particularly to negative unexpected income changes and among high-income individuals. These effects differ based on an individual's position in the income distribution, which may be attributed to differences in income dynamics, role of insurance mechanisms, and varying levels of awareness about how unexpected income changes and aggregate conditions impact household finances.

Přiložené soubory

1-s2.0-S0167268125001830-main.pdf

Citovat

BUCCIOL, Alessandro; Joshy EASAW a Serena TRUCCHI. Household income expectations: The role of unexpected income changes and aggregate conditions. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization. AMSTERDAM: ELSEVIER, 2025, roč. 236, August, s. 1-28. ISSN 0167-2681. Dostupné z: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107064.

@article{2502339,
   author = {Bucciol, Alessandro and Easaw, Joshy and Trucchi, Serena},
   article_location = {AMSTERDAM},
   article_number = {August},
   doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107064},
   keywords = {Income expectations; Expectation uncertainty; Expectation error; Unexpected income changes; Aggregate conditions},
   language = {eng},
   issn = {0167-2681},
   journal = {Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization},
   title = {Household income expectations: The role of unexpected income changes and aggregate conditions},
   url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268125001830},
   volume = {236},
   year = {2025}
}

TY  - JOUR
ID  - 2502339
AU  - Bucciol, Alessandro - Easaw, Joshy - Trucchi, Serena
PY  - 2025
TI  - Household income expectations: The role of unexpected income changes and aggregate conditions
JF  - Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization
VL  - 236
IS  - August
SP  - 1-28
EP  - 1-28
PB  - ELSEVIER
SN  - 01672681
KW  - Income expectations
KW  - Expectation uncertainty
KW  - Expectation error
KW  - Unexpected income changes
KW  - Aggregate conditions
UR  - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268125001830
N2  - We analyse how unexpected income changes and aggregate conditions influence income expectations, their uncertainty, and expectation errors. We use a uniquely rich longitudinal Dutch survey collecting detailed information on the distribution of household income expectations. Our results show that unexpected income changes, much more than aggregate conditions, induce a revision in income expectations across the entire spectrum of the expected income distribution, consistent with extrapolative behaviour. We also document that unexpected income changes increase the uncertainty about future income. Our results provide some evidence of over-reaction, particularly to negative unexpected income changes and among high-income individuals. These effects differ based on an individual's position in the income distribution, which may be attributed to differences in income dynamics, role of insurance mechanisms, and varying levels of awareness about how unexpected income changes and aggregate conditions impact household finances.
ER  -

BUCCIOL, Alessandro; Joshy EASAW a Serena TRUCCHI. Household income expectations: The role of unexpected income changes and aggregate conditions. \textit{Journal of Economic Behavior \&{} Organization}. AMSTERDAM: ELSEVIER, 2025, roč.~236, August, s.~1-28. ISSN~0167-2681. Dostupné z: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2025.107064.

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