How Heterogeneous Are the Inflation Expectations?

J 2025

How Heterogeneous Are the Inflation Expectations?

MOUČKA, Jakub a Daniel NĚMEC

Základní údaje

Originální název

How Heterogeneous Are the Inflation Expectations?

Autoři

MOUČKA, Jakub a Daniel NĚMEC

Vydání

Danube, Germany, De Gruyter Open Ltd, 2025, 1804-6746

Další údaje

Jazyk

angličtina

Typ výsledku

Článek v odborném periodiku

Obor

50200 5.2 Economics and Business

Stát vydavatele

Německo

Utajení

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Odkazy

URL

Označené pro přenos do RIV

Ano

Organizační jednotka

Ekonomicko-správní fakulta

DOI

https://doi.org/10.2478/danb-2025-0006

EID Scopus

2-s2.0-105011381410

Klíčová slova anglicky

Inflation Expectations; Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA); Panel Data Analysis; Expectations Heterogeneity; Determinants of Inflation Expectations

Štítky

rivok

Příznaky

Mezinárodní význam, Recenzováno

Změněno: 27. 11. 2025 11:25, Mgr. Alžběta Karolyiová

Anotace

V originále

This paper investigates the heterogeneity of inflation expectations among households, firms, and professionals across 14 economies. Using Bayesian model averaging and panel data regressions, we identify key determinants of inflation expectations, assess their stability over time, and evaluate their persistence. Our findings reveal that households and firms rely heavily on past expectations and year-on-year changes in economic variables, whereas professionals are more responsive to monetary policy indicators. The inflation news index emerges as a crucial determinant, especially during high-inflation periods, highlighting the role of media in expectation formation. We find that inflation expectations became more backward-looking during the inflationary period 2022. Additionally, while CPI inflation significantly influences firms and professionals, exchange rates and oil prices appear insignificant.

Návaznosti

MUNI/A/1120/2022, interní kód MU

Název: Heterogeneous expectations in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models

Investor: Masarykova univerzita, Heterogeneous expectations in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models

Přiložené soubory

How-Heterogeneous-Are-the-Inflation-Expectations.pdf

Citovat

MOUČKA, Jakub a Daniel NĚMEC. How Heterogeneous Are the Inflation Expectations? Danube. Germany: De Gruyter Open Ltd, 2025, roč. 16, č. 2, s. 88-125. ISSN 1804-6746. Dostupné z: https://doi.org/10.2478/danb-2025-0006.

@article{2509508,
   author = {Moučka, Jakub and Němec, Daniel},
   article_location = {Germany},
   article_number = {2},
   doi = {https://doi.org/10.2478/danb-2025-0006},
   keywords = {Inflation Expectations; Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA); Panel Data Analysis; Expectations Heterogeneity; Determinants of Inflation Expectations},
   language = {eng},
   issn = {1804-6746},
   journal = {Danube},
   title = {How Heterogeneous Are the Inflation Expectations?},
   url = {https://sciendo.com/article/10.2478/danb-2025-0006},
   volume = {16},
   year = {2025}
}

TY  - JOUR
ID  - 2509508
AU  - Moučka, Jakub - Němec, Daniel
PY  - 2025
TI  - How Heterogeneous Are the Inflation Expectations?
JF  - Danube
VL  - 16
IS  - 2
SP  - 88-125
EP  - 88-125
PB  - De Gruyter Open Ltd
SN  - 18046746
KW  - Inflation Expectations
KW  - Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA)
KW  - Panel Data Analysis
KW  - Expectations Heterogeneity
KW  - Determinants of Inflation Expectations
UR  - https://sciendo.com/article/10.2478/danb-2025-0006
N2  - This paper investigates the heterogeneity of inflation expectations among households, firms, and professionals across 14 economies. Using Bayesian model averaging and panel data regressions, we identify key determinants of inflation expectations, assess their stability over time, and evaluate their persistence. Our findings reveal that households and firms rely heavily on past expectations and year-on-year changes in economic variables, whereas professionals are more responsive to monetary policy indicators. The inflation news index emerges as a crucial determinant, especially during high-inflation periods, highlighting the role of media in expectation formation. We find that inflation expectations became more backward-looking during the inflationary period 2022. Additionally, while CPI inflation significantly influences firms and professionals, exchange rates and oil prices appear insignificant.
ER  -

MOUČKA, Jakub a Daniel NĚMEC. How Heterogeneous Are the Inflation Expectations? \textit{Danube}. Germany: De Gruyter Open Ltd, 2025, roč.~16, č.~2, s.~88-125. ISSN~1804-6746. Dostupné z: https://doi.org/10.2478/danb-2025-0006.

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