Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) and the fog of war at the
strategic level : Defence industrial production in Russia

J 2026

Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) and the fog of war at the strategic level : Defence industrial production in Russia

KRPEC, Oldřich; Martin CHOVANČÍK a Adriana ILAVSKÁ

Základní údaje

Originální název

Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) and the fog of war at the strategic level : Defence industrial production in Russia

Autoři

KRPEC, Oldřich; Martin CHOVANČÍK a Adriana ILAVSKÁ

Vydání

European Journal of International Security, UK, CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS, 2026, 2057-5637

Další údaje

Jazyk

angličtina

Typ výsledku

Článek v odborném periodiku

Obor

50601 Political science

Stát vydavatele

Velká Británie a Severní Irsko

Utajení

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Odkazy

article - open access

Impakt faktor

Impact factor: 2.500 v roce 2024

Označené pro přenos do RIV

Organizační jednotka

Fakulta sociálních studií

Klíčová slova anglicky

defence industry; defence production; open source intelligence

Štítky

online first

Příznaky

Mezinárodní význam, Recenzováno

Změněno: 14. 4. 2026 17:04, Mgr. Petra Trembecká, Ph.D.

Anotace

V originále

The war in Ukraine has increased attention to Open Source Intelligence (OSINT), though most research focuses on tactical use or effects on public opinion. This article asks whether OSINF can be methodically transformed into reliable strategic intelligence under wartime uncertainty. Using Russia’s defence industry as a case study, we compare three production scenarios: official claims, expert estimates, and an Open Source Information–based (OSINF) model derived from shares in battlefield losses. The OSINT scenario shows large discrepancies, suggesting actual output is much lower than reported. We argue that with proper methodological treatment, presented in the paper, OSINF now offers sufficient detail to assess national defence capacity. Our approach demonstrates OSINT’s potential to complement traditional intelligence by introducing a novel methodological framework for cross-validating OSINT-derived data against official claims and expert estimates. The findings engage scholarly debates on the integration of OSINT with conventional frameworks by providing a replicable and transparent model for producing more accurate strategic assessments, even at the strategic level.

Návaznosti

GA22-25205S, projekt VaV

Název: Strukturální překážky a příležitosti kooperace a integrace postkomunistických zemí EU v Evropské obranné spolupráci

Investor: Grantová agentura ČR, Strukturální překážky a příležitosti kooperace a integrace postkomunistických zemí EU v Evropské obranné spolupráci

Přiložené soubory

open-source-intelligence-osint-and-the-fog-of-war-at-the-strategic-level_EarlyAccess.pdf

Citovat

KRPEC, Oldřich; Martin CHOVANČÍK a Adriana ILAVSKÁ. Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) and the fog of war at the strategic level : Defence industrial production in Russia. European Journal of International Security. UK: CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS, 2026, s. 1-24. ISSN 2057-5637. Dostupné z: https://doi.org/10.1017/eis.2026.10046.

@article{2555511,
   author = {Krpec, Oldřich and Chovančík, Martin and Ilavská, Adriana},
   article_location = {UK},
   doi = {https://doi.org/10.1017/eis.2026.10046},
   keywords = {defence industry; defence production; open source intelligence},
   language = {eng},
   issn = {2057-5637},
   journal = {European Journal of International Security},
   title = {Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) and the fog of war at the strategic level : Defence industrial production in Russia},
   url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/european-journal-of-international-security/article/open-source-intelligence-osint-and-the-fog-of-war-at-the-strategic-level-defence-industrial-production-in-russia/C732FF8D8AE9956A4920BA6DC2451F20},
   year = {2026}
}

TY  - JOUR
ID  - 2555511
AU  - Krpec, Oldřich - Chovančík, Martin - Ilavská, Adriana
PY  - 2026
TI  - Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) and the fog of war at the strategic level : Defence industrial production in Russia
JF  - European Journal of International Security
SP  - 1-24
EP  - 1-24
PB  - CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS
SN  - 20575637
KW  - defence industry
KW  - defence production
KW  - open source intelligence
UR  - https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/european-journal-of-international-security/article/open-source-intelligence-osint-and-the-fog-of-war-at-the-strategic-level-defence-industrial-production-in-russia/C732FF8D8AE9956A4920BA6DC2451F20
N2  - The war in Ukraine has increased attention to Open Source Intelligence (OSINT), though most research focuses on tactical use or effects on public opinion. This article asks whether OSINF can be methodically transformed into reliable strategic intelligence under wartime uncertainty. Using Russia’s defence industry as a case study, we compare three production scenarios: official claims, expert estimates, and an Open Source Information–based (OSINF) model derived from shares in battlefield losses. The OSINT scenario shows large discrepancies, suggesting actual output is much lower than reported. We argue that with proper methodological treatment, presented in the paper, OSINF now offers sufficient detail to assess national defence capacity. Our approach demonstrates OSINT’s potential to complement traditional intelligence by introducing a novel methodological framework for cross-validating OSINT-derived data against official claims and expert estimates. The findings engage scholarly debates on the integration of OSINT with conventional frameworks by providing a replicable and transparent model for producing more accurate strategic assessments, even at the strategic level.
ER  -

KRPEC, Oldřich; Martin CHOVANČÍK a Adriana ILAVSKÁ. Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) and the fog of war at the strategic level : Defence industrial production in Russia. \textit{European Journal of International Security}. UK: CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS, 2026, s.~1-24. ISSN~2057-5637. Dostupné z: https://doi.org/10.1017/eis.2026.10046.

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