No evidence for reversed publication bias in research on
intelligence and school grades: Funnel plot asymmetry as an
artifact of conditional standard errors

J 2026

No evidence for reversed publication bias in research on intelligence and school grades: Funnel plot asymmetry as an artifact of conditional standard errors

CÍGLER, Hynek

Základní údaje

Originální název

No evidence for reversed publication bias in research on intelligence and school grades: Funnel plot asymmetry as an artifact of conditional standard errors

Autoři

CÍGLER, Hynek

Vydání

INTELLIGENCE, NEW YORK, ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC, 2026, 0160-2896

Další údaje

Jazyk

angličtina

Typ výsledku

Článek v odborném periodiku

Obor

50101 Psychology

Stát vydavatele

Spojené státy

Utajení

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Odkazy

URL, Analytical script and data

Impakt faktor

Impact factor: 2.800 v roce 2024

Označené pro přenos do RIV

Ano

Organizační jednotka

Fakulta sociálních studií

Klíčová slova anglicky

Reversed publication bias; Publication bias; meta-analysis; Fisher z-transformation; Conditional standard error; Funnel plot

Příznaky

Mezinárodní význam, Recenzováno

Změněno: 26. 3. 2026 17:00, Mgr. Blanka Farkašová

Anotace

V originále

Reversed publication bias-the idea that politically sensitive findings may be selectively suppressed in favor of null effects-has recently gained attention in public and online discussions. Roth et al.'s (2015) meta-analysis of the association between intelligence and school grades (rho = 0.54) has been frequently cited as supposed evidence, because its funnel plots appear to show larger correlations in studies with smaller sampling error. However, this study demonstrates that the pattern is entirely spurious. Reanalysis of the original data reveals that the asymmetry arises from the use of the conditional standard error of the correlation coefficient, which depends on the observed value of r and mechanically induces funnel-plot skew. When more appropriate methods, such as Fisher's z-transformation with unconditional standard errors, are applied, the asymmetry disappears and Egger's test becomes nonsignificant, t(238) = -1.41, p = .160. A complementary simulation study further confirms that conditional-error weighting can generate strong false signals of reversed publication bias and inflate total effectsize estimates even when no bias is present. Overall, these findings provide no evidence for reversed publication bias in research on intelligence and school grades. Using conditional standard errors of raw correlation coefficients in meta-analyses should be completely avoided.

Přiložené soubory

cigler2016.pdf

Citovat

CÍGLER, Hynek. No evidence for reversed publication bias in research on intelligence and school grades: Funnel plot asymmetry as an artifact of conditional standard errors. INTELLIGENCE. NEW YORK: ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC, 2026, roč. 116, č. 102005, s. 1-6. ISSN 0160-2896. Dostupné z: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intell.2026.102005.

@article{2559602,
   author = {Cígler, Hynek},
   article_location = {NEW YORK},
   article_number = {102005},
   doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intell.2026.102005},
   keywords = {Reversed publication bias; Publication bias; meta-analysis; Fisher z-transformation; Conditional standard error; Funnel plot},
   language = {eng},
   issn = {0160-2896},
   journal = {INTELLIGENCE},
   title = {No evidence for reversed publication bias in research on intelligence and school grades: Funnel plot asymmetry as an artifact of conditional standard errors},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intell.2026.102005},
   volume = {116},
   year = {2026}
}

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ID  - 2559602
AU  - Cígler, Hynek
PY  - 2026
TI  - No evidence for reversed publication bias in research on intelligence and school grades: Funnel plot asymmetry as an artifact of conditional standard errors
JF  - INTELLIGENCE
VL  - 116
IS  - 102005
SP  - 1-6
EP  - 1-6
PB  - ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
SN  - 01602896
KW  - Reversed publication bias
KW  - Publication bias
KW  - meta-analysis
KW  - Fisher z-transformation
KW  - Conditional standard error
KW  - Funnel plot
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intell.2026.102005
N2  - Reversed publication bias-the idea that politically sensitive findings may be selectively suppressed in favor of null effects-has recently gained attention in public and online discussions. Roth et al.'s (2015) meta-analysis of the association between intelligence and school grades (rho = 0.54) has been frequently cited as supposed evidence, because its funnel plots appear to show larger correlations in studies with smaller sampling error. However, this study demonstrates that the pattern is entirely spurious. Reanalysis of the original data reveals that the asymmetry arises from the use of the conditional standard error of the correlation coefficient, which depends on the observed value of r and mechanically induces funnel-plot skew. When more appropriate methods, such as Fisher's z-transformation with unconditional standard errors, are applied, the asymmetry disappears and Egger's test becomes nonsignificant, t(238) = -1.41, p = .160. A complementary simulation study further confirms that conditional-error weighting can generate strong false signals of reversed publication bias and inflate total effectsize estimates even when no bias is present. Overall, these findings provide no evidence for reversed publication bias in research on intelligence and school grades. Using conditional standard errors of raw correlation coefficients in meta-analyses should be completely avoided.
ER  -

CÍGLER, Hynek. No evidence for reversed publication bias in research on intelligence and school grades: Funnel plot asymmetry as an artifact of conditional standard errors. \textit{INTELLIGENCE}. NEW YORK: ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC, 2026, roč.~116, č.~102005, s.~1-6. ISSN~0160-2896. Dostupné z: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intell.2026.102005.

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