Možného rodina předvídaná a rodina skutečná

RABUŠIC, Ladislav. Možného rodina předvídaná a rodina skutečná (What Has Mozny Projected about the Family and What Has Really Happened). Sociální studia. Brno: Fakulta sociálních studií MU Brno, 2002, vol. 2002, Speciální, p. 29-37. ISSN 1212-365X.

Basic information

• Original name: Možného rodina předvídaná a rodina skutečná
• Name (in English): What Has Mozny Projected about the Family and What Has Really Happened
• Authors: RABUŠIC, Ladislav (203 Czech Republic, guarantor).
• Edition: Sociální studia, Brno, Fakulta sociálních studií MU Brno, 2002, 1212-365X.

Other information

• Original language: Czech
• Type of outcome: Article in a journal
• Field of Study: 50000 5. Social Sciences
• Country of publisher: Czech Republic
• Confidentiality degree: is not subject to a state or trade secret
• RIV identification code: RIV/00216224:14230/02:00006293
• Organization unit: Faculty of Social Studies
• Keywords in English: Projection; the family; fertility; unmarried cohabitation
• Tags: Fertility, projection, the family, unmarried cohabitation

Abstract

Článek konfrontuje předpovědi o vývoji české rodiny, které uskutečníl Ivo Možný ve své monografii Moderní rodina (1990). Demografická data naznačují, že se Možný ve svých predikcích v mnoha aspektech vývoje rodiny nemýlil. V průběhu 90. let se zvýšil anomálně nízký průměrný věk prvního sňatku a porodu prvního dítěte, zvýšil se podíl párů praktikujících nesezdané soužití, snížil se neúměrně vysoký počet potratů. To vše bylo výsledkem změněné hodnotové orientace v oblasti párového a rodinného a chování. I tuto hodnotovou proměnu Možný predikoval.

Abstract (in English)

In this article the projected development of Czech family made by Czech family sociologist Ivo Mozny in the late 1980s is confronted with its real contemporary development. Demographic data show that in many instances Mozny was right in his predictions: he predicted that Czech anomalies in very low age at first marriage and first birth would cease to exist soon and that new young generation would start to postpone their entries into marriage. That had really happened. He assumed the increase of unmarried cohabitation and it had also happened; he also projected the increase in illegitimate births and that had become reality. He was quite sure that the high numbers of abortions will decrease and they had done so. On the other hand he thought that health status of Czechs would not get improved soon and that also the ecological deterioration of Czech environment would not be halted. In both of these guesses he was wrong. Naturally, he could have not known that as a side effect of Czech Velvet Revolution, there will come a stable, gradual and substantial increase of life expectancy of both Czech males and females as well as the substantial improvement in the quality of environment.

Links

• GA403/01/1099, research and development project: Name: Veřejnost, demografické procesy a populační politika - Česká republika 2001 (druhé kolo evropského komparativního výzkumu)

Investor: Czech Science Foundation, The Acceptance of Population-related Policies (PPA II)