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@inproceedings{818549, author = {Antoničová, Zuzana and Musil, Karel and Růžička, Luboš and Vlček, Jan}, address = {Praha}, booktitle = {Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB’s Inflation Targets 1998–2007}, edition = {CNB}, keywords = {Monetary policy; inflation target fulfilment; macroeconomic forecast; forecast deviation; Czech National Bank}, language = {eng}, location = {Praha}, isbn = {978-80-87225-11-0}, note = {Česká verze: Vyhodnocení plnění inflačních cílů ČNB v letech 1998-2007 (ISBN 978-80-87225-10-3)}, pages = {82-97}, publisher = {CNB}, title = {Evaluation of the Quality and Success Rate of Forecasts - A Historical Overview}, url = {http://www.cnb.cz/m2export/sites/www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_publications/evaluation_infl_targets/download/evaluation_inf_targets_1998-2007.pdf}, year = {2008} }
TY - JOUR ID - 818549 AU - Antoničová, Zuzana - Musil, Karel - Růžička, Luboš - Vlček, Jan PY - 2008 TI - Evaluation of the Quality and Success Rate of Forecasts - A Historical Overview PB - CNB CY - Praha SN - 9788087225110 N1 - Česká verze: Vyhodnocení plnění inflačních cílů ČNB v letech 1998-2007 (ISBN 978-80-87225-10-3) KW - Monetary policy KW - inflation target fulfilment KW - macroeconomic forecast KW - forecast deviation KW - Czech National Bank UR - http://www.cnb.cz/m2export/sites/www.cnb.cz/en/research/research_publications/evaluation_infl_targets/download/evaluation_inf_targets_1998-2007.pdf N2 - The paper is aimed at the evaluation of quality and the success-rate of the past Czech National Bank's forecasts created from 2004 until mid-2006. It strives to identify the factors which have caused deviations from reality in the past forecasts and could contribute to non-fulfilment of the announced inflation target. There are three groups of factors, which have most often contributed to the overvaluation of the historical forecasts: ex post incorrect setting up of the equilibrium trajectories, non-fulfilment of some exogenous presumptions together with an influence of unexpected shocks, and inaccurate capture of some behavioural relationships within the model apparatus. According to a comparison of historical and adjusted forecasts against reality, forecasts produced during the reviewed period of time are diverted on average towards higher inflation, lower real growth, and more depreciated nominal exchange rate. Consistently, the implied trajectory of the interest rate is higher than reality. Nevertheless, the deviations of the basic macro-economic variables gradually decrease with the course of time. ER -
ANTONIČOVÁ, Zuzana, Karel MUSIL, Luboš RŮŽIČKA a Jan VLČEK. Evaluation of the Quality and Success Rate of Forecasts - A Historical Overview. In \textit{Evaluation of the Fulfilment of the CNB’s Inflation Targets 1998–2007}. CNB. Praha: CNB, 2008, s.~82-97. ISBN~978-80-87225-11-0.
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