Bayesian Estimation of Mean Sojourn Time and Sensitivity in the Czech Organized Mammography Screening Programme

BUREŠOVÁ, Lucie, Ondřej MÁJEK, Jan DANEŠ, Helena BARTOŇKOVÁ, Miroslava SKOVAJSOVÁ and Ladislav DUŠEK. Bayesian Estimation of Mean Sojourn Time and Sensitivity in the Czech Organized Mammography Screening Programme. In Sixth Workshop on BAYESIAN INFERENCE IN STOCHASTIC PROCESSES. 2009.

Basic information

• Original name: Bayesian Estimation of Mean Sojourn Time and Sensitivity in the Czech Organized Mammography Screening Programme
• Authors: BUREŠOVÁ, Lucie, Ondřej MÁJEK, Jan DANEŠ, Helena BARTOŇKOVÁ, Miroslava SKOVAJSOVÁ and Ladislav DUŠEK.
• Edition: Sixth Workshop on BAYESIAN INFERENCE IN STOCHASTIC PROCESSES, 2009.

Other information

• Type of outcome: Presentations at conferences
• Confidentiality degree: is not subject to a state or trade secret
• Organization unit: Institute of Biostatistics and Analyses
• Tags: International impact

Abstract

Organized breast cancer screening programme in the Czech Republic was initiated in September 2002. Free biennial preventive mammography examinations are offered to women aged 45-69. By year 2007 1,067,836 women were screened (more than 50% of the target population) in 1,611,582 examinations. A total of 7,835 cases of breast cancer were detected. Important parameters in assessing the quality of the programme and natural history of breast cancer are: mean duration of the preclinical screen-detectable phase (the carcinoma is without clinical signs but it could be found by the screening test - mammography), which is called mean sojourn time, and sensitivity of mammography (capability of the test to detect cancer). These parameters are not directly observable; however, they can be estimated using mathematical models. Both parameters were estimated for different age groups of women in target population. Simple tree-state Markov model with states: disease free - preclinical screen-detectable - clinical disease was developed and utilized for estimation. Analysis was performed using WinBUGS programme.