a 2009

Estimation Of The Mean Sojourn Time And Sensitivity In Mammographic Screening Programme Using Bayesian Methods

BUREŠOVÁ, Lucie, Ondřej MÁJEK, Eva GELNAROVÁ, Jan DANEŠ, Helena BARTOŇKOVÁ et. al.

Basic information

Original name

Estimation Of The Mean Sojourn Time And Sensitivity In Mammographic Screening Programme Using Bayesian Methods

Name in Czech

Odhad "mean sojourn time" a senzitivity v mamografickém screeningovém programu použitím bayesovských metod

Authors

BUREŠOVÁ, Lucie, Ondřej MÁJEK, Eva GELNAROVÁ, Jan DANEŠ, Helena BARTOŇKOVÁ, Miroslava SKOVAJSOVÁ and Ladislav DUŠEK

Edition

2009

Other information

Type of outcome

Konferenční abstrakt

Confidentiality degree

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Organization unit

Institute of Biostatistics and Analyses

Keywords (in Czech)

mamografický screening; preklinická screeningem detekovatelná fáze; senzitivita

Keywords in English

mamography screening; preclinical screen-detectable phase; sensitivity
Změněno: 30/9/2009 14:22, RNDr. Lucie Burešová

Abstract

V originále

Background: Organized breast cancer screening programme in the Czech Republic was initiated in September 2002. Free biennial preventive mammography examinations are offered to women aged 45-69. Important parameters in assessing the quality of the screening process and natural history of breast cancer are: mean duration of the preclinical screen-detectable phase (the carcinoma is without clinical signs but it could be found by the screening test - mammography), which is called mean sojourn time (MST), and sensitivity of mammography (capability of the test to detect cancer). These parameters are not directly observable; however, they can be estimated using mathematical models. Objective: To estimate the MST and sensitivity of mammography in women aged 50-59 and 60-69 years. Methods: Using the numbers of examinations and numbers of tumours detected by screening in the first three rounds, three state Markov models with states: disease free – preclinical screendetectable – clinical disease were constructed. In the first model, we assumed a constant interval between screens, in the second model, there was different time interval between screens. Analysis was performed using WinBUGS software. Results: In 2002-2007, there were 741,655 examinations performed in women aged 50-59 and 434,165 in women aged 60-69 in the first three screening rounds. According to the first model, the estimated MST was 2.73 years for women aged 50-59 and 3.30 for women aged 60-69. The estimated sensitivity of mammography was 73% for women aged 50-59 and 93% for women aged 60-69. As regards the second model, the estimated MST was 2.31 years for women aged 50- 59 and 3.12 for women aged 60-69. The estimated sensitivity of mammography was 84% for women aged 50-59 and 95% for women aged 60-69. Conclusion: Two year screening interval for mammography examinations is appropriate for programme in the Czech Republic. Sensitivity of mammography is adequate in age groups covered by the programme.