Study of Volatility and Party System Transformation in the 2010 Election of the Czech Chamber of Deputies

ŠEDO, Jakub. Study of Volatility and Party System Transformation in the 2010 Election of the Czech Chamber of Deputies. World Political Science Review. The Berkley Electronic Press, 2012, vol. 8, No 1, p. 1-16. ISSN 1935-6226.

Basic information

• Original name: Study of Volatility and Party System Transformation in the 2010 Election of the Czech Chamber of Deputies
• Name in Czech: Volatilita a transformace stranického systému ve volbách do Poslanecké sněmovny v roce 2010
• Authors: ŠEDO, Jakub (203 Czech Republic, guarantor, belonging to the institution).
• Edition: World Political Science Review, The Berkley Electronic Press, 2012, 1935-6226.

Other information

• Original language: English
• Type of outcome: Article in a journal
• Field of Study: 50601 Political science
• Country of publisher: United States of America
• Confidentiality degree: is not subject to a state or trade secret
• RIV identification code: RIV/00216224:14230/12:00057606
• Organization unit: Faculty of Social Studies
• Keywords in English: volatility; party system; Chamber of Deputies; Czech Republic; Pedersen index
• Tags: International impact, Reviewed

Abstract

The paper deals with measuring volatility in the election of the Chamber of Deputies in the Czech Republic, calculated for both national and regional levels (the latter being the level of electoral constituencies). The main aim of the paper is to identify the link between the gains and losses of parties, and the volatility of a region. In comparison with the 2006 election, an overall increase in volatility was recorded in 2010, but most of the more volatile regions remained the same in both elections compared. Volatility on the regional level is strongly connected with the losses of the previously governing parties (in office 2006-9) and with the gains of the strongest new party, TOP09. We also compare three possible calculations of volatility involving the category of “other” parties. In calculating volatility we could not recommend the omission of “other” parties from the numerator without a corresponding change in the denominator. As for the remaining two methods (“other” parties calculated as one bloc, or “other” parties omitted both in the numerator and the denominator), future comparisons would be required.

Abstract (in Czech)

volatility; party system; Chamber of Deputies; Czech Republic; Pedersen index volatility; party system; Chamber of Deputies; Czech Republic; Pedersen index Text je věnován měření volatility ve volbách do Poslanecké sněmovny Parlamentu České republiky. Výpočet je prováděn jak na národní, tak regionální úrovni. Cílem textu je identifikace vztahu mezi zisky a ztrátami stran, a volatilitou v jednotlivých regionech. Volatilita v roce 2010 výrazně vzrostla ve srovnání s volatilitou v roce 2006, přičemž nejvíce volatilní byly stejné regiony jako v roce 2006. Volatilita na regionální úrovni je úzce propojena se ztrátamiá vládních stran z let 2006-9 a zisky TOP09. V textu byly dále porovnány tři alternativní výpočty volatility pro existenci "ostatních" stran v souboru. Na jejich základě nemůžeme doporučit vynechání ostatních stran v čitateli bez odpovídající úpravy jmenovatele. Ze zbývajících dvou metod (ostatní strany počítány jako blok, nebo pominuty v čitateli i jmenovateli) bude vhodné o vhodnější variantě rozhodovat na základě podrobnějšího výzkumu.

Links

• GP407/08/P632, research and development project: Name: Volební systémy a jejich vliv na stabilitu stranických systémů

Investor: Czech Science Foundation, Electoral systems and their influence on the party system stability