Abstract

This study analyzes climate variability patterns in Cameroon and their effects on agricultural productivity over the past 60 years, focusing on changes in temperature and precipitation as well as their socio-economic impacts. Using historical climate data and models, the study examines temporal and spatial trends in key seasons as well as possible future variability in temperature and precipitation. Results show a significant warming trend (+1.2°C) from 1961 to 2020, especially after 2000, with March to May exhibiting the highest temperature anomalies. Precipitation patterns have become more irregular, with a notable decrease in rainfall observed in the early 1960s and drier periods noted from the mid-2000s. Model scenarios for future projections of Cameroon’s climate indicate significant changes in both temperature and precipitation patterns. Temperature anomalies are projected to increase across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585), with the magnitude of warming varying depending on the specific scenario. Under SSP585, the most extreme scenario, temperature anomalies could reach +2.5°C to +3.5°C by 2100. The climate shifts since the 1960s have impacted agriculture, with correlations observed between climatic anomalies and reduced crop productivity (e.g., beans and maize). The Far North and Adamawa regions demonstrate heightened vulnerability to drought and desertification. Socioeconomic consequences include food insecurity, migration, infrastructure damage, and public health risks. The study proposes mitigation strategies through improved governance, sustainable agriculture, early warning systems, and local adaptation initiatives to reduce future risks. Insights can guide climate-resilient development policy and inform national adaptation plans in Cameroon and other similar African regions. …víceméně