The Chessboard of South China Sea: Game Modeling  of the
Dispute Dynamics

C 2013

The Chessboard of South China Sea: Game Modeling of the Dispute Dynamics

TURCSÁNYI, Richard

Základní údaje

Originální název

The Chessboard of South China Sea: Game Modeling of the Dispute Dynamics

Autoři

TURCSÁNYI, Richard (703 Slovensko, garant, domácí)

Vydání

Bratislava, Panorama of Global Security Environment 2013, od s. 495-506, 12 s. 2013

Nakladatel

Centre for European and North Atlantic Affairs

Další údaje

Jazyk

angličtina

Typ výsledku

Kapitola resp. kapitoly v odborné knize

Obor

50601 Political science

Stát vydavatele

Slovensko

Utajení

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Forma vydání

tištěná verze "print"

Kód RIV

RIV/00216224:14230/13:00081994

Organizační jednotka

Fakulta sociálních studií

ISBN

978-80-971124-5-5

Klíčová slova anglicky

South China Sea; territorial dispute; international relations in East Asia

Změněno: 11. 4. 2016 10:58, Ing. Alena Raisová

Anotace

V originále

South China Sea with its vast geopolitical importance continues to be also one of the world’s most problematic regions with a very unpredictable future in terms of security conditions and realities on the ground. The proposed paper will try to shed some light into the current situation by grasping the logic of interaction between the involved parties. It will focus on actions of individual states involved in the dispute, which will be treated as parts of a complex game situation, in which the states’ actions are reacting to each other. The two types of actions will be considered - ‘events establishing new trends’ and ‘incidents’; and these will be taking place on the backdrop of ‘long term tendencies’ which continue to push forward the overall distribution of power sources. The logic of moves by China, Vietnam, Philippines, and the US will be analyzed, including the available options and possible reactions to other states’ moves. It will be concluded that if the current dynamics continues to prevail, China will be step-by-step improving its standing due to favorable tendency of power distribution and established trends, heightened by the lack of capabilities and potentially high risks on the side of the opponent states; and lack of true commitment and potentially too big a burden for the US. The individual steps of the opponent countries may have only the effect of accelerating the process while at the same time creating more tensions.

Návaznosti

MUNI/A/0754/2012, interní kód MU

Název: Aktuální otázky evropské a mezinárodní politiky

Investor: Masarykova univerzita, Aktuální otázky evropské a mezinárodní politiky, DO R. 2020_Kategorie A - Specifický výzkum - Studentské výzkumné projekty

Citovat

TURCSÁNYI, Richard. The Chessboard of South China Sea: Game Modeling of the Dispute Dynamics. In Marian Majer, Róbert Ondrejcsák. Panorama of Global Security Environment 2013. Bratislava: Centre for European and North Atlantic Affairs, 2013, s. 495-506. ISBN 978-80-971124-5-5.

@inbook{1173373,
   author = {Turcsányi, Richard},
   address = {Bratislava},
   booktitle = {Panorama of Global Security Environment 2013},
   editor = {Marian Majer, Róbert Ondrejcsák},
   keywords = {South China Sea; territorial dispute; international relations in East Asia},
   howpublished = {tištěná verze "print"},
   language = {eng},
   location = {Bratislava},
   isbn = {978-80-971124-5-5},
   pages = {495-506},
   publisher = {Centre for European and North Atlantic Affairs},
   title = {The Chessboard of South China Sea: Game Modeling of the Dispute Dynamics},
   year = {2013}
}

TY  - CHAP
ID  - 1173373
AU  - Turcsányi, Richard
PY  - 2013
TI  - The Chessboard of South China Sea: Game Modeling of the Dispute Dynamics
VL  - Neuveden
PB  - Centre for European and North Atlantic Affairs
CY  - Bratislava
SN  - 9788097112455
KW  - South China Sea
KW  - territorial dispute
KW  - international relations in East Asia
N2  - South China Sea with its vast geopolitical importance continues to be also one of the world’s most problematic regions with a very unpredictable future in terms of security conditions and realities on the ground. The proposed paper will try to shed some light into the current situation by grasping the logic of interaction between the involved parties. It will focus on actions of individual states involved in the dispute, which will be treated as parts of a complex game situation, in which the states’ actions are reacting to each other. The two types of actions will be considered - ‘events establishing new trends’ and ‘incidents’; and these will be taking place on the backdrop of ‘long term tendencies’ which continue to push forward the overall distribution of power sources. The logic of moves by China, Vietnam, Philippines, and the US will be analyzed, including the available options and possible reactions to other states’ moves. It will be concluded that if the current dynamics continues to prevail, China will be step-by-step improving its standing due to favorable tendency of power distribution and established trends, heightened by the lack of capabilities and potentially high risks on the side of the opponent states; and lack of true commitment and potentially too big a burden for the US. The individual steps of the opponent countries may have only the effect of accelerating the process while at the same time creating more tensions.
ER  -

TURCSÁNYI, Richard. The Chessboard of South China Sea: Game Modeling of the Dispute Dynamics. In Marian Majer, Róbert Ondrejcsák. \textit{Panorama of Global Security Environment 2013}. Bratislava: Centre for European and North Atlantic Affairs, 2013, s.~495-506. ISBN~978-80-971124-5-5.

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