The Application of Sovereign Bond Spreads (The Case of Finland,
Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Russia)

D 2014

The Application of Sovereign Bond Spreads (The Case of Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Russia)

HVOZDENSKÁ, Jana

Základní údaje

Originální název

The Application of Sovereign Bond Spreads (The Case of Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Russia)

Autoři

HVOZDENSKÁ, Jana

Vydání

Tallinn, 6th International Conference "Economic Challenges in Enlarged Europe" - Conference Proceedings, od s. 1-11, 11 s. 2014

Nakladatel

Tallinn University of Technology

Další údaje

Jazyk

angličtina

Typ výsledku

Stať ve sborníku

Obor

50200 5.2 Economics and Business

Stát vydavatele

Estonsko

Utajení

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Forma vydání

paměťový nosič (CD, DVD, flash disk)

Označené pro přenos do RIV

Ano

Kód RIV

RIV/00216224:14560/14:00075771

Organizační jednotka

Ekonomicko-správní fakulta

ISSN

Klíčová slova anglicky

GDP prediction; yield curve; slope; spread

Příznaky

Mezinárodní význam, Recenzováno

Změněno: 13. 1. 2015 18:10, Ing. Bc. Jana Hvozdenská, Ph.D.

Anotace

V originále

The yield curve – specifically the spread between long term and short term interest rates is a valuable forecasting tool. It is simple to use and significantly outperforms other financial and macroeconomic indicators in predicting recessions two to six quarters ahead. This paper aims to analyse the dependence between slope of the yield curve and an economic activity of selected countries between the years 2000 and 2013. The slope of the yield curve can be measured as the yield spread between sovereign 10-year and 3-month bonds. The natural and probably the most popular measure of economic growth is by GDP growth, taken quarterly. The results showed that the best predictive lags differ in each country and each time span we chose. The most common lags of spreads are lag four, five and six quarters. The results presented confirm that 10-year and 3-month yield spread has significant predictive power for real GDP growth.

Návaznosti

MUNI/A/0786/2013, interní kód MU

Název: Analýza a predikce vývoje cen finančních a investičních nástrojů

Investor: Masarykova univerzita, Analýza a predikce vývoje cen finančních a investičních nástrojů, DO R. 2020_Kategorie A - Specifický výzkum - Studentské výzkumné projekty

Citovat

HVOZDENSKÁ, Jana. The Application of Sovereign Bond Spreads (The Case of Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Russia). In Aaro Hazak. 6th International Conference "Economic Challenges in Enlarged Europe" - Conference Proceedings. Tallinn: Tallinn University of Technology, 2014, s. 1-11. ISSN 2382-6797.

@inproceedings{1186486,
   author = {Hvozdenská, Jana},
   address = {Tallinn},
   booktitle = {6th International Conference "Economic Challenges in Enlarged Europe" - Conference Proceedings},
   editor = {Aaro Hazak},
   keywords = {GDP prediction; yield curve; slope; spread},
   howpublished = {paměťový nosič},
   language = {eng},
   location = {Tallinn},
   pages = {1-11},
   publisher = {Tallinn University of Technology},
   title = {The Application of Sovereign Bond Spreads (The Case of Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Russia)},
   year = {2014}
}

TY  - CONF
ID  - 1186486
AU  - Hvozdenská, Jana
PY  - 2014
TI  - The Application of Sovereign Bond Spreads (The Case of Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Russia)
PB  - Tallinn University of Technology
CY  - Tallinn
KW  - GDP prediction
KW  - yield curve
KW  - slope
KW  - spread
N2  - The yield curve – specifically the spread between long term and short term interest rates is a valuable forecasting tool. It is simple to use and significantly outperforms other financial and macroeconomic indicators in predicting recessions two to six quarters ahead. This paper aims to analyse the dependence between slope of the yield curve and an economic activity of selected countries between the years 2000 and 2013. The slope of the yield curve can be measured as the yield spread between sovereign 10-year and 3-month bonds. The natural and probably the most popular measure of economic growth is by GDP growth, taken quarterly. The results showed that the best predictive lags differ in each country and each time span we chose. The most common lags of spreads are lag four, five and six quarters. The results presented confirm that 10-year and 3-month yield spread has significant predictive power for real GDP growth.
ER  -

HVOZDENSKÁ, Jana. The Application of Sovereign Bond Spreads (The Case of Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Russia). In Aaro Hazak. \textit{6th International Conference ''Economic Challenges in Enlarged Europe'' - Conference Proceedings}. Tallinn: Tallinn University of Technology, 2014, s.~1-11. ISSN~2382-6797.

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