The impact of Polish unconventional production on the regional
distribution of natural gas supply and transit: A scenario
analysis

J 2016

The impact of Polish unconventional production on the regional distribution of natural gas supply and transit: A scenario analysis

OSIČKA, Jan, Petr OCELÍK a Břetislav DANČÁK

Základní údaje

Originální název

The impact of Polish unconventional production on the regional distribution of natural gas supply and transit: A scenario analysis

Autoři

OSIČKA, Jan (203 Česká republika, garant, domácí), Petr OCELÍK (203 Česká republika, domácí) a Břetislav DANČÁK (203 Česká republika, domácí)

Vydání

Energy Strategy Reviews, 2016, 2211-467X

Další údaje

Jazyk

angličtina

Typ výsledku

Článek v odborném periodiku

Obor

50601 Political science

Stát vydavatele

Nizozemské království

Utajení

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Odkazy

URL

Impakt faktor

Impact factor: 1.891

Kód RIV

RIV/00216224:14230/16:00089911

Organizační jednotka

Fakulta sociálních studií

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2016.02.001

UT WoS

000378853000001

Klíčová slova anglicky

Natural gas; Network flow model; Unconventional gas; Central and Eastern Europe; Scenario analysis

Změněno: 26. 4. 2017 13:57, Ing. Alena Raisová

Anotace

V originále

We use the MEOS model to assess the possible impact of Polish unconventional gas (UNG) production on natural gas flows through the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. MEOS is a network flow optimization model designed to solve the minimum-cost flow problem in a network that consists of nodes (production areas, consumption areas, transshipment junctions) and arcs (pipelines). The article postulates and analyzes five distinct scenarios combining various levels of UNG production with different settings of regional infrastructure. The MEOS simulations reveal the critical importance of currently missing cross-border links between the countries. Polish UNG production is therefore likely to trigger new infrastructure projects and foster the ones that are currently under consideration. The biggest changes in natural gas supply can be expected in Slovakia and Hungary, as these markets do not have direct access to German hubs. Similarly, it is reasonable to expect Polish UNG to be traded at the Austrian CEGH hub, which will further catalyze the transformation of the regional market. It is further argued that in addition to sufficient infrastructure, UNG production will require liberalization of the Polish domestic market and a certain degree of integration of regional markets, effectively changing the nature of natural gas trading in the region, which is still dominated by Russian long-term, take-or-pay contracts.

Návaznosti

MUNI/A/1113/2015, interní kód MU

Název: Evropa v měnícím se mezinárodním prostředí II

Investor: Masarykova univerzita, Evropa v měnícím se mezinárodním prostředí II, DO R. 2020_Kategorie A - Specifický výzkum - Studentské výzkumné projekty

MUNI/M/0081/2013, interní kód MU

Název: Energetická infrastruktura a její vliv na energetickou bezpečnost

Investor: Masarykova univerzita, Energetická infrastruktura a její vliv na energetickou bezpečnost, INTERDISCIPLINARY - Mezioborové výzkumné projekty

Citovat

OSIČKA, Jan, Petr OCELÍK a Břetislav DANČÁK. The impact of Polish unconventional production on the regional distribution of natural gas supply and transit: A scenario analysis. Energy Strategy Reviews. 2016, roč. 10, May, s. 1-17. ISSN 2211-467X. Dostupné z: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2016.02.001.

@article{1344970,
   author = {Osička, Jan and Ocelík, Petr and Dančák, Břetislav},
   article_number = {May},
   doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2016.02.001},
   keywords = {Natural gas; Network flow model; Unconventional gas; Central and Eastern Europe; Scenario analysis},
   language = {eng},
   issn = {2211-467X},
   journal = {Energy Strategy Reviews},
   title = {The impact of Polish unconventional production on the regional distribution of natural gas supply and transit: A scenario analysis},
   url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X16300074},
   volume = {10},
   year = {2016}
}

TY  - JOUR
ID  - 1344970
AU  - Osička, Jan - Ocelík, Petr - Dančák, Břetislav
PY  - 2016
TI  - The impact of Polish unconventional production on the regional distribution of natural gas supply and transit: A scenario analysis
JF  - Energy Strategy Reviews
VL  - 10
IS  - May
SP  - 1-17
EP  - 1-17
SN  - 2211467X
KW  - Natural gas
KW  - Network flow model
KW  - Unconventional gas
KW  - Central and Eastern Europe
KW  - Scenario analysis
UR  - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X16300074
L2  - http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X16300074
N2  - We use the MEOS model to assess the possible impact of Polish unconventional gas (UNG) production on natural gas flows through the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. MEOS is a network flow optimization model designed to solve the minimum-cost flow problem in a network that consists of nodes (production areas, consumption areas, transshipment junctions) and arcs (pipelines). The article postulates and analyzes five distinct scenarios combining various levels of UNG production with different settings of regional infrastructure. The MEOS simulations reveal the critical importance of currently missing cross-border links between the countries. Polish UNG production is therefore likely to trigger new infrastructure projects and foster the ones that are currently under consideration. The biggest changes in natural gas supply can be expected in Slovakia and Hungary, as these markets do not have direct access to German hubs. Similarly, it is reasonable to expect Polish UNG to be traded at the Austrian CEGH hub, which will further catalyze the transformation of the regional market. It is further argued that in addition to sufficient infrastructure, UNG production will require liberalization of the Polish domestic market and a certain degree of integration of regional markets, effectively changing the nature of natural gas trading in the region, which is still dominated by Russian long-term, take-or-pay contracts.
ER  -

OSIČKA, Jan, Petr OCELÍK a Břetislav DANČÁK. The impact of Polish unconventional production on the regional distribution of natural gas supply and transit: A scenario analysis. \textit{Energy Strategy Reviews}. 2016, roč.~10, May, s.~1-17. ISSN~2211-467X. Dostupné z: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2016.02.001.

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