Future changes of severe thunderstorm frequency over Europe

k 2016

Future changes of severe thunderstorm frequency over Europe

PÚČIK, Tomáš; Pieter GROENEMEIJER; Lars TIJSSEN a Anja WESTERMAYER

Základní údaje

Originální název

Future changes of severe thunderstorm frequency over Europe

Autoři

PÚČIK, Tomáš; Pieter GROENEMEIJER; Lars TIJSSEN a Anja WESTERMAYER

Vydání

16th EMS / 11th ECAC, 2016

Další údaje

Typ výsledku

Prezentace na konferencích

Utajení

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Odkazy

URL

Označené pro přenos do RIV

Příznaky

Mezinárodní význam

Změněno: 4. 10. 2016 11:23, Mgr. Tomáš Púčik, Ph.D.

Anotace

V originále

An ensemble of 15 EURO-CORDEX model runs was used to investigate the changes in the frequency of severe thunderstorm phenomena (large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes) over Europe. For each time frame and grid point, a probability of occurrence was calculated based on the degree of instability, vertical wind shear and the occurrence of precipitation. We show that the local annual probabilities of occurrence are very different for the three investigated phenomena. Future changes were addressed by comparing the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 simulations to historical (control) runs. Historical runs span the 1971–2000 period, while the future studied periods are 2021–2050 and 2071–2100. The frequencies of all studied phenomena are forecast to increase in the future due to the climate change, especially across south-central Europe. In the RCP8.5 scenario and the 2071–2100 period significant increases are forecast across large parts of Europe. In this case, the frequency of the phenomena increases by 20-70%. Regional differences in the increase are discussed and further analysed by considering the individual ingredients of severe thunderstorms. We show that instability is forecast to increase across all of Europe due to the increase in the absolute moisture content in the lower troposphere. On the other hand, no significant changes in the degree of vertical wind shear are forecast. For some regions in Europe (e.g. Iberian peninsula), drying of the atmosphere may result in the reduced potential for thunderstorm formation.

Citovat

PÚČIK, Tomáš; Pieter GROENEMEIJER; Lars TIJSSEN a Anja WESTERMAYER. Future changes of severe thunderstorm frequency over Europe. In 16th EMS / 11th ECAC. 2016.

@proceedings{1355897,
   author = {Púčik, Tomáš and Groenemeijer, Pieter and Tijssen, Lars and Westermayer, Anja},
   booktitle = {16th EMS / 11th ECAC},
   title = {Future changes of severe thunderstorm frequency over Europe},
   url = {http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EMS2016/EMS2016-559.pdf},
   year = {2016}
}

TY  - CONF
ID  - 1355897
AU  - Púčik, Tomáš - Groenemeijer, Pieter - Tijssen, Lars - Westermayer, Anja
PY  - 2016
TI  - Future changes of severe thunderstorm frequency over Europe
UR  - http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EMS2016/EMS2016-559.pdf
N2  - An ensemble of 15 EURO-CORDEX model runs was used to investigate the changes in the frequency of severe thunderstorm phenomena (large hail, severe wind gusts and tornadoes) over Europe. For each time frame and grid point, a probability of occurrence was calculated based on the degree of instability, vertical wind shear and the occurrence of precipitation. We show that the local annual probabilities of occurrence are very different for the three investigated phenomena. Future changes were addressed by comparing the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 simulations to historical (control) runs. Historical runs span the 1971–2000 period, while the future studied periods are 2021–2050 and 2071–2100. The frequencies of all studied phenomena are forecast to increase in the future due to the climate change, especially across south-central Europe. In the RCP8.5 scenario and the 2071–2100 period significant increases are forecast across large parts of Europe. In this case, the frequency of the phenomena increases by 20-70%. Regional differences in the increase are discussed and further analysed by considering the individual ingredients of severe thunderstorms. We show that instability is forecast to increase across all of Europe due to the increase in the absolute moisture content in the lower troposphere. On the other hand, no significant changes in the degree of vertical wind shear are forecast. For some regions in Europe (e.g. Iberian peninsula), drying of the atmosphere may result in the reduced potential for thunderstorm formation.
ER  -

PÚČIK, Tomáš; Pieter GROENEMEIJER; Lars TIJSSEN a Anja WESTERMAYER. Future changes of severe thunderstorm frequency over Europe. In \textit{16th EMS / 11th ECAC}. 2016.

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