Which Government Bond Spread Predicts the Future Economic
Growth the Best?

D 2016

Which Government Bond Spread Predicts the Future Economic Growth the Best?

HVOZDENSKÁ, Jana

Základní údaje

Originální název

Which Government Bond Spread Predicts the Future Economic Growth the Best?

Autoři

HVOZDENSKÁ, Jana

Vydání

Ostrava, Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on European Integration 2016, od s. 376-382, 7 s. 2016

Nakladatel

VŠB - Technical University of Ostrava

Další údaje

Jazyk

angličtina

Typ výsledku

Stať ve sborníku

Obor

50600 5.6 Political science

Stát vydavatele

Česká republika

Utajení

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Forma vydání

tištěná verze "print"

Označené pro přenos do RIV

Ano

Kód RIV

RIV/00216224:14560/16:00091065

Organizační jednotka

Ekonomicko-správní fakulta

ISBN

978-80-248-3911-0

UT WoS

000387986300041

Klíčová slova anglicky

Bond market integration; Slope; Spread; Yield curve

Příznaky

Mezinárodní význam, Recenzováno

Změněno: 30. 1. 2018 15:17, Ing. Bc. Jana Hvozdenská, Ph.D.

Anotace

V originále

The spread between long term and short term interest rates is a valuable forecasting tool. The steepness of the yield curve should be an excellent indicator of a possible future economic activity. A rise in the short rate tends to flatten the yield curve as well as to slow down real economic growth the near term. The relationship between the spread and future GDP activity was proved already before. One question remains – which spread is the best for the future prediction? Is it the spread between sovereign 10-year bonds and 3-month bonds or 15-year and 3- month or 10-year and 1-year sovereign bonds? This paper aimed to analyze which spread is the most suitable for predicting of future economic growth in countries of V4 (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia) between the years 2000 and 2015. We proved that in these selected countries the best spread is a spread of 5-year and 3-month government bonds. The second best spread is spread of 5-year and 1-year government bonds. The results show that dividing of the sample made a difference between pre-crisis and after-crisis period and it showed the different relationship of spreads and the models. The finding that the best spread is spread of 5-year and 3-month eventually 5-year and 1-year is in contradiction with the theoretical background when almost everybody who predicts the future GDP growth uses a spread of 10-year and 3-month of government bonds.

Návaznosti

MUNI/A/1025/2015, interní kód MU

Název: Hrozby a výzvy prostředí přetrvávajících nízkých úrokových sazeb pro vývoj a stabilitu finančního systému (Akronym: FinStabilita)

Investor: Masarykova univerzita, Hrozby a výzvy prostředí přetrvávajících nízkých úrokových sazeb pro vývoj a stabilitu finančního systému, DO R. 2020_Kategorie A - Specifický výzkum - Studentské výzkumné projekty

Citovat

HVOZDENSKÁ, Jana. Which Government Bond Spread Predicts the Future Economic Growth the Best? In Kovářová Eva, Melecký Lukáš, Staníčková Michaela. Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on European Integration 2016. Ostrava: VŠB - Technical University of Ostrava, 2016, s. 376-382. ISBN 978-80-248-3911-0.

@inproceedings{1355900,
   author = {Hvozdenská, Jana},
   address = {Ostrava},
   booktitle = {Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on European Integration 2016},
   editor = {Kovářová Eva, Melecký Lukáš, Staníčková Michaela},
   keywords = {Bond market integration; Slope; Spread; Yield curve},
   howpublished = {tištěná verze "print"},
   language = {eng},
   location = {Ostrava},
   isbn = {978-80-248-3911-0},
   pages = {376-382},
   publisher = {VŠB - Technical University of Ostrava},
   title = {Which Government Bond Spread Predicts the Future Economic Growth the Best?},
   year = {2016}
}

TY  - CONF
ID  - 1355900
AU  - Hvozdenská, Jana
PY  - 2016
TI  - Which Government Bond Spread Predicts the Future Economic Growth the Best?
PB  - VŠB - Technical University of Ostrava
CY  - Ostrava
SN  - 9788024839110
KW  - Bond market integration
KW  - Slope
KW  - Spread
KW  - Yield curve
N2  - The spread between long term and short term interest rates is a valuable forecasting tool. The steepness of the yield curve should be an excellent indicator of a possible future economic activity. A rise in the short rate tends to flatten the yield curve as well as to slow down real economic growth the near term. The relationship between the spread and future GDP activity was proved already before. One question remains – which spread is the best for the future prediction? Is it the spread between sovereign 10-year bonds and 3-month bonds or 15-year and 3- month or 10-year and 1-year sovereign bonds? This paper aimed to analyze which spread is the most suitable for predicting of future economic growth in countries of V4 (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia) between the years 2000 and 2015. We proved that in these selected countries the best spread is a spread of 5-year and 3-month government bonds. The second best spread is spread of 5-year and 1-year government bonds. The results show that dividing of the sample made a difference between pre-crisis and after-crisis period and it showed the different relationship of spreads and the models. The finding that the best spread is spread of 5-year and 3-month eventually 5-year and 1-year is in contradiction with the theoretical background when almost everybody who predicts the future GDP growth uses a spread of 10-year and 3-month of government bonds.
ER  -

HVOZDENSKÁ, Jana. Which Government Bond Spread Predicts the Future Economic Growth the Best? In Kovářová Eva, Melecký Lukáš, Staníčková Michaela. \textit{Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on European Integration 2016}. Ostrava: VŠB - Technical University of Ostrava, 2016, s.~376-382. ISBN~978-80-248-3911-0.

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