Forcings and projections of past and future wind speed over the
Czech Republic

J 2019

Forcings and projections of past and future wind speed over the Czech Republic

BRÁZDIL, Rudolf; Jiří MIKŠOVSKÝ; Petr ŠTĚPÁNEK; Pavel ZAHRADNÍČEK; Ladislava ŘEZNÍČKOVÁ et al.

Základní údaje

Originální název

Forcings and projections of past and future wind speed over the Czech Republic

Autoři

BRÁZDIL, Rudolf; Jiří MIKŠOVSKÝ; Petr ŠTĚPÁNEK; Pavel ZAHRADNÍČEK; Ladislava ŘEZNÍČKOVÁ a Petr DOBROVOLNÝ

Vydání

Climate Research, Oldendorf (Luhe), Inter-Research, 2019, 0936-577X

Další údaje

Jazyk

angličtina

Typ výsledku

Článek v odborném periodiku

Obor

10500 1.5. Earth and related environmental sciences

Stát vydavatele

Německo

Utajení

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Odkazy

URL

Impakt faktor

Impact factor: 2.023

Označené pro přenos do RIV

Ano

Kód RIV

RIV/00216224:14310/19:00133984

Organizační jednotka

Přírodovědecká fakulta

Klíčová slova anglicky

wind speed; climate forcings; circulation indices; attribution analysis; wind-speed projections; regional climate models; Czech Republic

Štítky

rivok

Příznaky

Mezinárodní význam, Recenzováno

Změněno: 2. 2. 2024 08:36, Mgr. Marie Novosadová Šípková, DiS.

Anotace

V originále

Monthly, seasonal and annual wind-speed series from 119 meteorological stations situated throughout the Czech Republic indicate decreasing and statistically significant trends in the 1961–2015 period. Attribution analysis, applying multiple linear regression, was used to identify wind-speed components related to natural and anthropogenic climate forcings and internally-induced climate variability. A significant link to wind speeds was detected for the North Atlantic Oscillation Index, as well as for the closely-related Central European Zonal Index, especially during the winter season. An influence from the East Atlantic/Western Russia Pattern was found during autumn and winter, especially in the eastern part of the Czech territory. A weaker, although still significant, relation to volcanic activity also emerged, but was found to be likely spurious due to its absence in free atmosphere wind over the Czech territory. Changes in the large-scale circulation did not seem to be primarily involved in long-term wind stilling, despite a formal correlation between the stilling and anthropogenic forcing. Distinct geographical variations in the regression-estimated links suggest profound influence from interactions between the local features of the measuring sites and large-scale climate-forming factors. A total of 11 Euro-CORDEX Regional Climate Model simulations for Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used for projection of annual and seasonal mean daily wind speeds for the territory of the Czech Republic in the 1951–2100 period. Despite correction of the model biases for individual regional climate models, these simulations largely underestimated the magnitude of declining observational trends in 1981–2010, with only annual, winter and spring values sharing the same sign of trend for both RCPs. Linear trends in wind speeds calculated for 1981–2100 for both RCPs show a significant negative trend in summer, while significant positive trends in winter and spring wind speeds were recorded in RCP8.5.

Návaznosti

GA15-11805S, projekt VaV

Název: Vichřice v českých zemích za posledních 500 let

Investor: Grantová agentura ČR, Vichřice v českých zemích za posledních 500 let

Citovat

BRÁZDIL, Rudolf; Jiří MIKŠOVSKÝ; Petr ŠTĚPÁNEK; Pavel ZAHRADNÍČEK; Ladislava ŘEZNÍČKOVÁ a Petr DOBROVOLNÝ. Forcings and projections of past and future wind speed over the Czech Republic. Climate Research. Oldendorf (Luhe): Inter-Research, 2019, roč. 77, č. 1, s. 1-21. ISSN 0936-577X. Dostupné z: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01540.

@article{1463156,
   author = {Brázdil, Rudolf and Mikšovský, Jiří and Štěpánek, Petr and Zahradníček, Pavel and Řezníčková, Ladislava and Dobrovolný, Petr},
   article_location = {Oldendorf (Luhe)},
   article_number = {1},
   doi = {https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01540},
   keywords = {wind speed; climate forcings; circulation indices; attribution analysis; wind-speed projections; regional climate models; Czech Republic},
   language = {eng},
   issn = {0936-577X},
   journal = {Climate Research},
   title = {Forcings and projections of past and future wind speed over the Czech Republic},
   url = {https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v77/n1/p1-21/},
   volume = {77},
   year = {2019}
}

TY  - JOUR
ID  - 1463156
AU  - Brázdil, Rudolf - Mikšovský, Jiří - Štěpánek, Petr - Zahradníček, Pavel - Řezníčková, Ladislava - Dobrovolný, Petr
PY  - 2019
TI  - Forcings and projections of past and future wind speed over the Czech Republic
JF  - Climate Research
VL  - 77
IS  - 1
SP  - 1-21
EP  - 1-21
PB  - Inter-Research
SN  - 0936577X
KW  - wind speed
KW  - climate forcings
KW  - circulation indices
KW  - attribution analysis
KW  - wind-speed projections
KW  - regional climate models
KW  - Czech Republic
UR  - https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v77/n1/p1-21/
L2  - https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/cr/v77/n1/p1-21/
N2  - Monthly, seasonal and annual wind-speed series from 119 meteorological stations situated throughout the Czech Republic indicate decreasing and statistically significant trends in the 1961–2015 period. Attribution analysis, applying multiple linear regression, was used to identify wind-speed components related to natural and anthropogenic climate forcings and internally-induced climate variability. A significant link to wind speeds was detected for the North Atlantic Oscillation Index, as well as for the closely-related Central European Zonal Index, especially during the winter season. An influence from the East Atlantic/Western Russia Pattern was found during autumn and winter, especially in the eastern part of the Czech territory. A weaker, although still significant, relation to volcanic activity also emerged, but was found to be likely spurious due to its absence in free atmosphere wind over the Czech territory. Changes in the large-scale circulation did not seem to be primarily involved in long-term wind stilling, despite a formal correlation between the stilling and anthropogenic forcing. Distinct geographical variations in the regression-estimated links suggest profound influence from interactions between the local features of the measuring sites and large-scale climate-forming factors. A total of 11 Euro-CORDEX Regional Climate Model simulations for Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used for projection of annual and seasonal mean daily wind speeds for the territory of the Czech Republic in the 1951–2100 period. Despite correction of the model biases for individual regional climate models, these simulations largely underestimated the magnitude of declining observational trends in 1981–2010, with only annual, winter and spring values sharing the same sign of trend for both RCPs. Linear trends in wind speeds calculated for 1981–2100 for both RCPs show a significant negative trend in summer, while significant positive trends in winter and spring wind speeds were recorded in RCP8.5.
ER  -

BRÁZDIL, Rudolf; Jiří MIKŠOVSKÝ; Petr ŠTĚPÁNEK; Pavel ZAHRADNÍČEK; Ladislava ŘEZNÍČKOVÁ a Petr DOBROVOLNÝ. Forcings and projections of past and future wind speed over the Czech Republic. \textit{Climate Research}. Oldendorf (Luhe): Inter-Research, 2019, roč.~77, č.~1, s.~1-21. ISSN~0936-577X. Dostupné z: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01540.

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