Observed and expected changes in wildfire-conducive weather and
fire events in peri-urban zones and key nature reserves of the
Czech Republic

J 2020

Observed and expected changes in wildfire-conducive weather and fire events in peri-urban zones and key nature reserves of the Czech Republic

TRNKA, Mirek, Jan BALEK, Martin MOŽNÝ, Emil CIENCIALA, Petr ČERMÁK et. al.

Základní údaje

Originální název

Observed and expected changes in wildfire-conducive weather and fire events in peri-urban zones and key nature reserves of the Czech Republic

Autoři

TRNKA, Mirek (garant), Jan BALEK, Martin MOŽNÝ, Emil CIENCIALA, Petr ČERMÁK, Daniela SEMERÁDOVÁ, František JUREČKA, Petr HLAVINKA, Petr ŠTĚPÁNEK, Aleš FARDA, Petr SKALÁK, Jana BERANOVÁ, Filip CHUCHMA, Pavel ZAHRADNÍČEK, Dalibor JANOUŠ, Zdeněk ŽALUD, Martin DUBROVSKÝ, Pavel KINDLMANN, Zdeňka KŘENOVÁ, Milan FISCHER, Jakub HRUŠKA a Rudolf BRÁZDIL (203 Česká republika, domácí)

Vydání

Climate Research, Inter-Research, 2020, 0936-577X

Další údaje

Jazyk

angličtina

Typ výsledku

Článek v odborném periodiku

Obor

10510 Climatic research

Stát vydavatele

Německo

Utajení

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Odkazy

URL

Impakt faktor

Impact factor: 1.972

Kód RIV

RIV/00216224:14310/20:00117377

Organizační jednotka

Přírodovědecká fakulta

DOI

http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/CR01617

UT WoS

000651539200003

Klíčová slova anglicky

Wildfire; Fire weather index; Climate change; Regional climate model; Global circulation model; Nature reserve; Peri-urban zone; Czech Republic

Štítky

rivok

Příznaky

Mezinárodní význam, Recenzováno

Změněno: 10. 6. 2021 11:35, Mgr. Marie Šípková, DiS.

Anotace

V originále

Recent drought and a surge in days with weather conditions conducive to wildfire occurrence during 2015-2019 reminded the Czech Republic that it is not immune to this type of natural hazard. Although Central Europe has not been at the center of such events, observed climate data and climate projections suggest a tendency toward more years with wet and mild winters and dry and hot summers. To fill the existing knowledge gap, we used an ensemble of 9 fuel aridity metrics, including 3 dedicated fire weather indices, and evaluated their level of agreement with actual fire occurrence and their temporal trends. The analysis included peri-urban zones of the 36 largest cities and towns in the Czech Republic (home of 3.8 million inhabitants) and the 29 largest protected areas (covering 13.7% of the territory). Fire weather climatology, based on both the Fire Weather Index and the Forest Fire Danger Index, agreed well with the long-term frequency of fires both in peri-urban zones and within protected areas. Future projections based on regional and global model ensembles indicated a significant increase in fuel aridity and an increase in the area affected by fire-conducive conditions both around urban areas and within protected regions. In particular, the area affected by days with very high risk fire weather conditions is likely to increase significantly relative to the past 60 yr. However, the magnitude of the projected change depends to a large degree on the selected fire weather metric and whether RCM- or GCM-based scenarios are used.

Citovat

TRNKA, Mirek, Jan BALEK, Martin MOŽNÝ, Emil CIENCIALA, Petr ČERMÁK, Daniela SEMERÁDOVÁ, František JUREČKA, Petr HLAVINKA, Petr ŠTĚPÁNEK, Aleš FARDA, Petr SKALÁK, Jana BERANOVÁ, Filip CHUCHMA, Pavel ZAHRADNÍČEK, Dalibor JANOUŠ, Zdeněk ŽALUD, Martin DUBROVSKÝ, Pavel KINDLMANN, Zdeňka KŘENOVÁ, Milan FISCHER, Jakub HRUŠKA a Rudolf BRÁZDIL. Observed and expected changes in wildfire-conducive weather and fire events in peri-urban zones and key nature reserves of the Czech Republic. Climate Research. Inter-Research, 2020, roč. 82, č. 2020, s. 33-54. ISSN 0936-577X. Dostupné z: https://dx.doi.org/10.3354/CR01617.

@article{1710676,
   author = {Trnka, Mirek and Balek, Jan and Možný, Martin and Cienciala, Emil and Čermák, Petr and Semerádová, Daniela and Jurečka, František and Hlavinka, Petr and Štěpánek, Petr and Farda, Aleš and Skalák, Petr and Beranová, Jana and Chuchma, Filip and Zahradníček, Pavel and Janouš, Dalibor and Žalud, Zdeněk and Dubrovský, Martin and Kindlmann, Pavel and Křenová, Zdeňka and Fischer, Milan and Hruška, Jakub and Brázdil, Rudolf},
   article_number = {2020},
   doi = {http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/CR01617},
   keywords = {Wildfire; Fire weather index; Climate change; Regional climate model; Global circulation model; Nature reserve; Peri-urban zone; Czech Republic},
   language = {eng},
   issn = {0936-577X},
   journal = {Climate Research},
   title = {Observed and expected changes in wildfire-conducive weather and fire events in peri-urban zones and key nature reserves of the Czech Republic},
   url = {https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01617},
   volume = {82},
   year = {2020}
}

TY  - JOUR
ID  - 1710676
AU  - Trnka, Mirek - Balek, Jan - Možný, Martin - Cienciala, Emil - Čermák, Petr - Semerádová, Daniela - Jurečka, František - Hlavinka, Petr - Štěpánek, Petr - Farda, Aleš - Skalák, Petr - Beranová, Jana - Chuchma, Filip - Zahradníček, Pavel - Janouš, Dalibor - Žalud, Zdeněk - Dubrovský, Martin - Kindlmann, Pavel - Křenová, Zdeňka - Fischer, Milan - Hruška, Jakub - Brázdil, Rudolf
PY  - 2020
TI  - Observed and expected changes in wildfire-conducive weather and fire events in peri-urban zones and key nature reserves of the Czech Republic
JF  - Climate Research
VL  - 82
IS  - 2020
SP  - 33-54
EP  - 33-54
PB  - Inter-Research
SN  - 0936577X
KW  - Wildfire
KW  - Fire weather index
KW  - Climate change
KW  - Regional climate model
KW  - Global circulation model
KW  - Nature reserve
KW  - Peri-urban zone
KW  - Czech Republic
UR  - https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01617
L2  - https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01617
N2  - Recent drought and a surge in days with weather conditions conducive to wildfire occurrence during 2015-2019 reminded the Czech Republic that it is not immune to this type of natural hazard. Although Central Europe has not been at the center of such events, observed climate data and climate projections suggest a tendency toward more years with wet and mild winters and dry and hot summers. To fill the existing knowledge gap, we used an ensemble of 9 fuel aridity metrics, including 3 dedicated fire weather indices, and evaluated their level of agreement with actual fire occurrence and their temporal trends. The analysis included peri-urban zones of the 36 largest cities and towns in the Czech Republic (home of 3.8 million inhabitants) and the 29 largest protected areas (covering 13.7% of the territory). Fire weather climatology, based on both the Fire Weather Index and the Forest Fire Danger Index, agreed well with the long-term frequency of fires both in peri-urban zones and within protected areas. Future projections based on regional and global model ensembles indicated a significant increase in fuel aridity and an increase in the area affected by fire-conducive conditions both around urban areas and within protected regions. In particular, the area affected by days with very high risk fire weather conditions is likely to increase significantly relative to the past 60 yr. However, the magnitude of the projected change depends to a large degree on the selected fire weather metric and whether RCM- or GCM-based scenarios are used.
ER  -

TRNKA, Mirek, Jan BALEK, Martin MOŽNÝ, Emil CIENCIALA, Petr ČERMÁK, Daniela SEMERÁDOVÁ, František JUREČKA, Petr HLAVINKA, Petr ŠTĚPÁNEK, Aleš FARDA, Petr SKALÁK, Jana BERANOVÁ, Filip CHUCHMA, Pavel ZAHRADNÍČEK, Dalibor JANOUŠ, Zdeněk ŽALUD, Martin DUBROVSKÝ, Pavel KINDLMANN, Zdeňka KŘENOVÁ, Milan FISCHER, Jakub HRUŠKA a Rudolf BRÁZDIL. Observed and expected changes in wildfire-conducive weather and fire events in peri-urban zones and key nature reserves of the Czech Republic. \textit{Climate Research}. Inter-Research, 2020, roč.~82, č.~2020, s.~33-54. ISSN~0936-577X. Dostupné z: https://dx.doi.org/10.3354/CR01617.

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