First Expert Elicitation of Knowledge on Possible Drivers of
Observed Increasing Human Cases of Tick-Borne Encephalitis in
Europe

J 2023

First Expert Elicitation of Knowledge on Possible Drivers of Observed Increasing Human Cases of Tick-Borne Encephalitis in Europe

SAEGERMAN, Claude; Marie-France HUMBLET; Marc LEANDRI; Gaëlle GONZALEZ; Paul HEYMAN et al.

Základní údaje

Originální název

First Expert Elicitation of Knowledge on Possible Drivers of Observed Increasing Human Cases of Tick-Borne Encephalitis in Europe

Autoři

SAEGERMAN, Claude; Marie-France HUMBLET; Marc LEANDRI; Gaëlle GONZALEZ; Paul HEYMAN; Hein SPRONG; Monique L’HOSTIS; Sara MOUTAILLER; Sarah I. BONNET; Nadia HADDAD; Nathalie BOULANGER; Stephen L. LEIB; Thierry HOCH; Etienne THIRY; Laure BOURNEZ; Jana KERLIK; Aurélie VELAY; Solveig JORE; Elsa JOURDAIN; Emmanuelle GILOT-FROMONT; Katharina BRUGGER; Julia GELLER; Marie STUDAHL; Nataša KNAP; Tatjana AVŠIČ-ŽUPANC; Daniel RŮŽEK; Tizza P. ZOMER; René BØDKER; Thomas F. H. BERGER; Sandra MARTIN-LATIL; Nick DE REGGE; Alice RAFFETIN; Sandrine A. LACOUR; Matthias KLEIN; Tinne LERNOUT; Elsa QUILLERY; Zdeněk HUBÁLEK; Francisco RUIZ-FONS; Agustín ESTRADA-PEÑA; Philippe FRAVALO; Pauline KOOH; Florence ETORE; Céline M. GOSSNER a Bethan PURSE

Vydání

Viruses, MDPI, 2023, 1999-4915

Další údaje

Jazyk

angličtina

Typ výsledku

Článek v odborném periodiku

Obor

10607 Virology

Stát vydavatele

Švýcarsko

Utajení

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Odkazy

URL

Impakt faktor

Impact factor: 3.800

Označené pro přenos do RIV

Ano

Kód RIV

RIV/00216224:14310/23:00130536

Organizační jednotka

Přírodovědecká fakulta

Klíčová slova anglicky

tick-borne encephalitis (TBE); flavivirus; TBEV; genus Ixodes; Dermacentor reticulatus; drivers; expert elicitation; ticks; multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA); clustering analysis; sensitivity analysis; uncertainty

Štítky

14314010, rivok

Příznaky

Mezinárodní význam, Recenzováno

Změněno: 2. 6. 2023 13:15, Mgr. Marie Novosadová Šípková, DiS.

Anotace

V originále

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a viral disease endemic in Eurasia. The virus is mainly transmitted to humans via ticks and occasionally via the consumption of unpasteurized milk products. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control reported an increase in TBE incidence over the past years in Europe as well as the emergence of the disease in new areas. To better understand this phenomenon, we investigated the drivers of TBE emergence and increase in incidence in humans through an expert knowledge elicitation. We listed 59 possible drivers grouped in eight domains and elicited forty European experts to: (i) allocate a score per driver, (ii) weight this score within each domain, and (iii) weight the different domains and attribute an uncertainty level per domain. An overall weighted score per driver was calculated, and drivers with comparable scores were grouped into three terminal nodes using a regression tree analysis. The drivers with the highest scores were: (i) changes in human behavior/activities; (ii) changes in eating habits or consumer demand; (iii) changes in the landscape; (iv) influence of humidity on the survival and transmission of the pathogen; (v) difficulty to control reservoir(s) and/or vector(s); (vi) influence of temperature on virus survival and transmission; (vii) number of wildlife compartments/groups acting as reservoirs or amplifying hosts; (viii) increase of autochthonous wild mammals; and (ix) number of tick species vectors and their distribution. Our results support researchers in prioritizing studies targeting the most relevant drivers of emergence and increasing TBE incidence.

Citovat

@article{2272058,
   author = {Saegerman, Claude and Humblet, MarieandFrance and Leandri, Marc and Gonzalez, Gaëlle and Heyman, Paul and Sprong, Hein and L’Hostis, Monique and Moutailler, Sara and Bonnet, Sarah I. and Haddad, Nadia and Boulanger, Nathalie and Leib, Stephen L. and Hoch, Thierry and Thiry, Etienne and Bournez, Laure and Kerlik, Jana and Velay, Aurélie and Jore, Solveig and Jourdain, Elsa and GilotandFromont, Emmanuelle and Brugger, Katharina and Geller, Julia and Studahl, Marie and Knap, Nataša and AvšičandŽupanc, Tatjana and Růžek, Daniel and Zomer, Tizza P. and Bødker, René and Berger, Thomas F. H. and MartinandLatil, Sandra and De Regge, Nick and Raffetin, Alice and Lacour, Sandrine A. and Klein, Matthias and Lernout, Tinne and Quillery, Elsa and Hubálek, Zdeněk and RuizandFons, Francisco and EstradaandPeña, Agustín and Fravalo, Philippe and Kooh, Pauline and Etore, Florence and Gossner, Céline M. and Purse, Bethan},
   article_number = {3},
   doi = {https://doi.org/10.3390/v15030791},
   keywords = {tick-borne encephalitis (TBE); flavivirus; TBEV; genus Ixodes; Dermacentor reticulatus; drivers; expert elicitation; ticks; multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA); clustering analysis; sensitivity analysis; uncertainty},
   language = {eng},
   issn = {1999-4915},
   journal = {Viruses},
   title = {First Expert Elicitation of Knowledge on Possible Drivers of Observed Increasing Human Cases of Tick-Borne Encephalitis in Europe},
   url = {https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/15/3/791},
   volume = {15},
   year = {2023}
}

TY  - JOUR
ID  - 2272058
AU  - Saegerman, Claude - Humblet, Marie-France - Leandri, Marc - Gonzalez, Gaëlle - Heyman, Paul - Sprong, Hein - L’Hostis, Monique - Moutailler, Sara - Bonnet, Sarah I. - Haddad, Nadia - Boulanger, Nathalie - Leib, Stephen L. - Hoch, Thierry - Thiry, Etienne - Bournez, Laure - Kerlik, Jana - Velay, Aurélie - Jore, Solveig - Jourdain, Elsa - Gilot-Fromont, Emmanuelle - Brugger, Katharina - Geller, Julia - Studahl, Marie - Knap, Nataša - Avšič-Županc, Tatjana - Růžek, Daniel - Zomer, Tizza P. - Bødker, René - Berger, Thomas F. H. - Martin-Latil, Sandra - De Regge, Nick - Raffetin, Alice - Lacour, Sandrine A. - Klein, Matthias - Lernout, Tinne - Quillery, Elsa - Hubálek, Zdeněk - Ruiz-Fons, Francisco - Estrada-Peña, Agustín - Fravalo, Philippe - Kooh, Pauline - Etore, Florence - Gossner, Céline M. - Purse, Bethan
PY  - 2023
TI  - First Expert Elicitation of Knowledge on Possible Drivers of Observed Increasing Human Cases of Tick-Borne Encephalitis in Europe
JF  - Viruses
VL  - 15
IS  - 3
SP  - 1-35
EP  - 1-35
PB  - MDPI
SN  - 19994915
KW  - tick-borne encephalitis (TBE)
KW  - flavivirus
KW  - TBEV
KW  - genus Ixodes
KW  - Dermacentor reticulatus
KW  - drivers
KW  - expert elicitation
KW  - ticks
KW  - multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA)
KW  - clustering analysis
KW  - sensitivity analysis
KW  - uncertainty
UR  - https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/15/3/791
N2  - Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a viral disease endemic in Eurasia. The virus is mainly transmitted to humans via ticks and occasionally via the consumption of unpasteurized milk products. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control reported an increase in TBE incidence over the past years in Europe as well as the emergence of the disease in new areas. To better understand this phenomenon, we investigated the drivers of TBE emergence and increase in incidence in humans through an expert knowledge elicitation. We listed 59 possible drivers grouped in eight domains and elicited forty European experts to: (i) allocate a score per driver, (ii) weight this score within each domain, and (iii) weight the different domains and attribute an uncertainty level per domain. An overall weighted score per driver was calculated, and drivers with comparable scores were grouped into three terminal nodes using a regression tree analysis. The drivers with the highest scores were: (i) changes in human behavior/activities; (ii) changes in eating habits or consumer demand; (iii) changes in the landscape; (iv) influence of humidity on the survival and transmission of the pathogen; (v) difficulty to control reservoir(s) and/or vector(s); (vi) influence of temperature on virus survival and transmission; (vii) number of wildlife compartments/groups acting as reservoirs or amplifying hosts; (viii) increase of autochthonous wild mammals; and (ix) number of tick species vectors and their distribution. Our results support researchers in prioritizing studies targeting the most relevant drivers of emergence and increasing TBE incidence.
ER  -

SAEGERMAN, Claude; Marie-France HUMBLET; Marc LEANDRI; Ga$\backslash$''elle GONZALEZ; Paul HEYMAN; Hein SPRONG; Monique L’HOSTIS; Sara MOUTAILLER; Sarah I. BONNET; Nadia HADDAD; Nathalie BOULANGER; Stephen L. LEIB; Thierry HOCH; Etienne THIRY; Laure BOURNEZ; Jana KERLIK; Aurélie VELAY; Solveig JORE; Elsa JOURDAIN; Emmanuelle GILOT-FROMONT; Katharina BRUGGER; Julia GELLER; Marie STUDAHL; Nataša KNAP; Tatjana AVŠIČ-ŽUPANC; Daniel RŮŽEK; Tizza P. ZOMER; René BØDKER; Thomas F. H. BERGER; Sandra MARTIN-LATIL; Nick DE REGGE; Alice RAFFETIN; Sandrine A. LACOUR; Matthias KLEIN; Tinne LERNOUT; Elsa QUILLERY; Zdeněk HUBÁLEK; Francisco RUIZ-FONS; Agustín ESTRADA-PEÑA; Philippe FRAVALO; Pauline KOOH; Florence ETORE; Céline M. GOSSNER a Bethan PURSE. First Expert Elicitation of Knowledge on Possible Drivers of Observed Increasing Human Cases of Tick-Borne Encephalitis in Europe. \textit{Viruses}. MDPI, 2023, roč.~15, č.~3, s.~1-35. ISSN~1999-4915. Dostupné z: https://doi.org/10.3390/v15030791.

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