Predicting the next pandemic: VACCELERATE ranking of the World Health Organization's Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics

SALMANTON-GARCÍA, Jon, Nathalie WIPFLER, Janina LECLER, Pontus NAUCLÉR, Patrick W MALLON, Patricxia CJL BRUIJNING-VERHAGEN, Heinz-Joseph SCHMITT, Ulrich BETHE, Ole F OLESEN, Fiona A STEWART, Kerstin ALBUS, Oliver A CORNELY a Petr HUSA. Predicting the next pandemic: VACCELERATE ranking of the World Health Organization's Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics. TRAVEL MEDICINE AND INFECTIOUS DISEASE. ENGLAND: ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2024, roč. 57, č. 102676, s. 1-6. ISSN 1477-8939. Dostupné z: https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tmaid.2023.102676.

Základní údaje

• Originální název: Predicting the next pandemic: VACCELERATE ranking of the World Health Organization's Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics
• Autoři: SALMANTON-GARCÍA, Jon (276 Německo, garant), Nathalie WIPFLER (276 Německo), Janina LECLER (276 Německo), Pontus NAUCLÉR (752 Švédsko), Patrick W MALLON (372 Irsko), Patricxia CJL BRUIJNING-VERHAGEN (528 Nizozemské království), Heinz-Joseph SCHMITT (276 Německo), Ulrich BETHE (276 Německo), Ole F OLESEN (276 Německo), Fiona A STEWART (276 Německo), Kerstin ALBUS (276 Německo), Oliver A CORNELY (276 Německo) a Petr HUSA (203 Česká republika, domácí).
• Vydání: TRAVEL MEDICINE AND INFECTIOUS DISEASE, ENGLAND, ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2024, 1477-8939.

Další údaje

• Originální jazyk: angličtina
• Typ výsledku: Článek v odborném periodiku
• Obor: 30303 Infectious Diseases
• Stát vydavatele: Velká Británie a Severní Irsko
• Utajení: není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství
• WWW: URL
• Impakt faktor: Impact factor: 12.000 v roce 2022
• Organizační jednotka: Lékařská fakulta
• Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tmaid.2023.102676
• Klíčová slova anglicky: Disease X; Ebola virus; Infectious disease; Influenza viruses; Pandemic; SARS-CoV; SARS-CoV-2; WHO R&D Blueprint for action to prevent epidemics

Anotace

Introduction: The World Health Organization (WHO)’s Research and Development (R&D) Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics, a plan of action, highlighted several infectious diseases as crucial targets for prevention. These infections were selected based on a thorough assessment of factors such as transmissibility, infectivity, severity, and evolutionary potential. In line with this blueprint, the VACCELERATE Site Network approached infectious disease experts to rank the diseases listed in the WHO R&D Blueprint according to their perceived risk of triggering a pandemic. VACCELERATE is an EU-funded collaborative European network of clinical trial sites, established to respond to emerging pandemics and enhance vaccine development capabilities. Methods: Between February and June 2023, a survey was conducted using an online form to collect data from members of the VACCELERATE Site Network and infectious disease experts worldwide. Participants were asked to rank various pathogens based on their perceived risk of causing a pandemic, including those listed in the WHO R&D Blueprint and additional pathogens. Results: A total of 187 responses were obtained from infectious disease experts representing 57 countries, with Germany, Spain, and Italy providing the highest number of replies. Influenza viruses received the highest rankings among the pathogens, with 79 % of participants including them in their top rankings. Disease X, SARSCoV- 2, SARS-CoV, and Ebola virus were also ranked highly. Hantavirus, Lassa virus, Nipah virus, and henipavirus were among the bottom-ranked pathogens in terms of pandemic potential. Conclusion: Influenza, SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2, and Ebola virus were found to be the most concerning pathogens with pandemic potential, characterised by transmissibility through respiratory droplets and a reported history of epidemic or pandemic outbreaks.