Predicting the next pandemic: VACCELERATE ranking of the World Health Organization's Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics
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SALMANTON-GARCÍA, Jon; Pauline WIPFLER; Janina LECKLER; Pontus NAUCLÉR; Patrick W MALLON; Patricia C J L BRUIJNING-VERHAGEN; Schmitt HEINZ-JOSEPH; Ullrich BETHE; Ole F OLESEN; Fiona A STEWART; Kerstin ALBUS; Oliver A CORNELY; Martin BUSCH; Ulrike SEIFERT; Andreas WIDMER; Miki NAGAO; Jordi RELLO; Tatina TODOROVA; Sabina CVILJEVIĆ; Christopher H HEATH; Ligita JANČORIENĖ; Thea Koelsen FISCHER; Hans Martin ORTH; Isik Somuncu JOHANSEN; Mehmet DOYMAZ; Athanasios TRAGIANNIDIS; Thomas LÖSCHER; Xu JIN-FU; Petr HUSA (203 Česká republika, domácí); José Antonio OTEO; Mohammad I ISSACK; Markus ZEITLINGER; Roger Le GRAND; Przemysław ZDZIARSKI; Fatih DEMIRKAN; Paloma Merino AMADOR; Tomás GARCÍA-LOZANO; Qing CAO; Lourdes VÁZQUEZ; Juan Pablo CAEIRO; Peter HERMANS; Shahroch NAHRWAR; Korkut AVSAR; Deepak KUMAR; Norma FERNÁNDEZ; Masoud MARDANI; Esther SEGAL; Angelo PAN; Despoina GKENTZI; Georgia GIOULA; Jorge Alberto CORTÉS; Joaquim OLIVEIRA; Pierre van DAMME; Mohd Zaki Bin Mohd ZAILI; Spinello ANTINORI; Birutė ZABLOCKIENĖ; Georgios PAPAZISIS; Chioma Inyang ANEKE; Maricela VALERIO; Samuel MCCONKEY; Avinash AUJAYEB; Anna Maria AZZINI; Jelena ROGANOVIĆ; Kristin Greve-Isdahl MOHN; Peter KREMSNER; Effrossyni GKRANIA-KLOTSAS; Dora CORZO; Nina KHANNA; Tomasz SMIATACZ; Simone SCHEITHAUER; Maria MERELLI; Boris KLEMPA; Radovan VRḪOVAC; Antonio RUGGIERO; Pankaj CHAUDHARY; Julio MAQUERA-AFARAY; Miquel EKKELENKAMP; Pavel JINDRA; Nikola PANTIĆ; Gemma Jiménez GUERRA; Guenter WEISS; Behrad ROOHI; Christos D ARGYROPOULOS; Sven Aprne SILFVERDAL; Jens van PRAET; Zumrut Sahbudak BAL; Souha KANJ; Barnaby YOUNG; Zoi Dorothea PANA; Emmanuel ROILIDES; Stephen C STEARNS; Joost WAUTERS; Jesús Rodríguez BAÑO; Mathias W PLETZ; Maja TRAVAR; Steven KÜHN; Fernando RIERA; Daniel CORNELY; Vlad Jeni LAURA; Philipp KOEHLER; Brian ELEY; Pravin K NAIR; Sandra CIESEK; Ioana Diana OLARU; Laura MARQUES; Emanuele PONTALI; Alexandra NAUNHEIM; Adrian LIEB; Markus GERHARD; Joveria Qais FAROOQI; Lance TURTLE; Gustavo Adolfo MÉNDEZ; Rebecca Jane COX; Nigel GOODMAN; Billie CACECA; Javier PEMÁN; Halima DAWOOD; Helena Hervius ASKLING; Anders FOMSGAARD; Alejandra Calderón HERNÁNDEZ; Cornelia STAEHELIN; Liu CHIA-YING; Giancarlo ICARDI; Elio CASTAGNOLA; Helmut J F SALZER; Jens LUNDGREN; Samir JAVADLI a Fabio FORGHIERI
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TRAVEL MEDICINE AND INFECTIOUS DISEASE, ENGLAND, ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2024, 1477-8939
Introduction: The World Health Organization (WHO)’s Research and Development (R&D) Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics, a plan of action, highlighted several infectious diseases as crucial targets for prevention. These infections were selected based on a thorough assessment of factors such as transmissibility, infectivity, severity, and evolutionary potential. In line with this blueprint, the VACCELERATE Site Network approached infectious disease experts to rank the diseases listed in the WHO R&D Blueprint according to their perceived risk of triggering a pandemic. VACCELERATE is an EU-funded collaborative European network of clinical trial sites, established to respond to emerging pandemics and enhance vaccine development capabilities. Methods: Between February and June 2023, a survey was conducted using an online form to collect data from members of the VACCELERATE Site Network and infectious disease experts worldwide. Participants were asked to rank various pathogens based on their perceived risk of causing a pandemic, including those listed in the WHO R&D Blueprint and additional pathogens. Results: A total of 187 responses were obtained from infectious disease experts representing 57 countries, with Germany, Spain, and Italy providing the highest number of replies. Influenza viruses received the highest rankings among the pathogens, with 79 % of participants including them in their top rankings. Disease X, SARSCoV- 2, SARS-CoV, and Ebola virus were also ranked highly. Hantavirus, Lassa virus, Nipah virus, and henipavirus were among the bottom-ranked pathogens in terms of pandemic potential. Conclusion: Influenza, SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2, and Ebola virus were found to be the most concerning pathogens with pandemic potential, characterised by transmissibility through respiratory droplets and a reported history of epidemic or pandemic outbreaks.
SALMANTON-GARCÍA, Jon; Pauline WIPFLER; Janina LECKLER; Pontus NAUCLÉR; Patrick W MALLON; Patricia C J L BRUIJNING-VERHAGEN; Schmitt HEINZ-JOSEPH; Ullrich BETHE; Ole F OLESEN; Fiona A STEWART; Kerstin ALBUS; Oliver A CORNELY; Martin BUSCH; Ulrike SEIFERT; Andreas WIDMER; Miki NAGAO; Jordi RELLO; Tatina TODOROVA; Sabina CVILJEVIĆ; Christopher H HEATH; Ligita JANČORIENĖ; Thea Koelsen FISCHER; Hans Martin ORTH; Isik Somuncu JOHANSEN; Mehmet DOYMAZ; Athanasios TRAGIANNIDIS; Thomas LÖSCHER; Xu JIN-FU; Petr HUSA; José Antonio OTEO; Mohammad I ISSACK; Markus ZEITLINGER; Roger Le GRAND; Przemysław ZDZIARSKI; Fatih DEMIRKAN; Paloma Merino AMADOR; Tomás GARCÍA-LOZANO; Qing CAO; Lourdes VÁZQUEZ; Juan Pablo CAEIRO; Peter HERMANS; Shahroch NAHRWAR; Korkut AVSAR; Deepak KUMAR; Norma FERNÁNDEZ; Masoud MARDANI; Esther SEGAL; Angelo PAN; Despoina GKENTZI; Georgia GIOULA; Jorge Alberto CORTÉS; Joaquim OLIVEIRA; Pierre van DAMME; Mohd Zaki Bin Mohd ZAILI; Spinello ANTINORI; Birutė ZABLOCKIENĖ; Georgios PAPAZISIS; Chioma Inyang ANEKE; Maricela VALERIO; Samuel MCCONKEY; Avinash AUJAYEB; Anna Maria AZZINI; Jelena ROGANOVIĆ; Kristin Greve-Isdahl MOHN; Peter KREMSNER; Effrossyni GKRANIA-KLOTSAS; Dora CORZO; Nina KHANNA; Tomasz SMIATACZ; Simone SCHEITHAUER; Maria MERELLI; Boris KLEMPA; Radovan VRḪOVAC; Antonio RUGGIERO; Pankaj CHAUDHARY; Julio MAQUERA-AFARAY; Miquel EKKELENKAMP; Pavel JINDRA; Nikola PANTIĆ; Gemma Jiménez GUERRA; Guenter WEISS; Behrad ROOHI; Christos D ARGYROPOULOS; Sven Aprne SILFVERDAL; Jens van PRAET; Zumrut Sahbudak BAL; Souha KANJ; Barnaby YOUNG; Zoi Dorothea PANA; Emmanuel ROILIDES; Stephen C STEARNS; Joost WAUTERS; Jesús Rodríguez BAÑO; Mathias W PLETZ; Maja TRAVAR; Steven KÜHN; Fernando RIERA; Daniel CORNELY; Vlad Jeni LAURA; Philipp KOEHLER; Brian ELEY; Pravin K NAIR; Sandra CIESEK; Ioana Diana OLARU; Laura MARQUES; Emanuele PONTALI; Alexandra NAUNHEIM; Adrian LIEB; Markus GERHARD; Joveria Qais FAROOQI; Lance TURTLE; Gustavo Adolfo MÉNDEZ; Rebecca Jane COX; Nigel GOODMAN; Billie CACECA; Javier PEMÁN; Halima DAWOOD; Helena Hervius ASKLING; Anders FOMSGAARD; Alejandra Calderón HERNÁNDEZ; Cornelia STAEHELIN; Liu CHIA-YING; Giancarlo ICARDI; Elio CASTAGNOLA; Helmut J F SALZER; Jens LUNDGREN; Samir JAVADLI a Fabio FORGHIERI. Predicting the next pandemic: VACCELERATE ranking of the World Health Organization's Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics. TRAVEL MEDICINE AND INFECTIOUS DISEASE. ENGLAND: ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2024, roč. 57, č. 102676, s. 1-6. ISSN 1477-8939. Dostupné z: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmaid.2023.102676.
@article{2394820, author = {SalmantonandGarcía, Jon and Wipfler, Pauline and Leckler, Janina and Nauclér, Pontus and Mallon, Patrick W and BruijningandVerhagen, Patricia C J L and HeinzandJoseph, Schmitt and Bethe, Ullrich and Olesen, Ole F and Stewart, Fiona A and Albus, Kerstin and Cornely, Oliver A and Busch, Martin and Seifert, Ulrike and Widmer, Andreas and Nagao, Miki and Rello, Jordi and Todorova, Tatina and Cviljević, Sabina and Heath, Christopher H and Jančorienė, Ligita and Fischer, Thea Koelsen and Orth, Hans Martin and Johansen, Isik Somuncu and Doymaz, Mehmet and Tragiannidis, Athanasios and Löscher, Thomas and JinandFu, Xu and Husa, Petr and Oteo, José Antonio and Issack, Mohammad I and Zeitlinger, Markus and Grand, Roger Le and Zdziarski, Przemysław and Demirkan, Fatih and Amador, Paloma Merino and GarcíaandLozano, Tomás and Cao, Qing and Vázquez, Lourdes and Caeiro, Juan Pablo and Hermans, Peter and Nahrwar, Shahroch and Avsar, Korkut and Kumar, Deepak and Fernández, Norma and Mardani, Masoud and Segal, Esther and Pan, Angelo and Gkentzi, Despoina and Gioula, Georgia and Cortés, Jorge Alberto and Oliveira, Joaquim and Damme, Pierre van and Zaili, Mohd Zaki Bin Mohd and Antinori, Spinello and Zablockienė, Birutė and Papazisis, Georgios and Aneke, Chioma Inyang and Valerio, Maricela and McConkey, Samuel and Aujayeb, Avinash and Azzini, Anna Maria and Roganović, Jelena and Mohn, Kristin GreveandIsdahl and Kremsner, Peter and GkraniaandKlotsas, Effrossyni and Corzo, Dora and Khanna, Nina and Smiatacz, Tomasz and Scheithauer, Simone and Merelli, Maria and Klempa, Boris and Vrḫovac, Radovan and Ruggiero, Antonio and Chaudhary, Pankaj and MaqueraandAfaray, Julio and Ekkelenkamp, Miquel and Jindra, Pavel and Pantić, Nikola and Guerra, Gemma Jiménez and Weiss, Guenter and Roohi, Behrad and Argyropoulos, Christos D and Silfverdal, Sven Aprne and Praet, Jens van and Bal, Zumrut Sahbudak and Kanj, Souha and Young, Barnaby and Pana, Zoi Dorothea and Roilides, Emmanuel and Stearns, Stephen C and Wauters, Joost and Baño, Jesús Rodríguez and Pletz, Mathias W and Travar, Maja and Kühn, Steven and Riera, Fernando and Cornely, Daniel and Laura, Vlad Jeni and Koehler, Philipp and Eley, Brian and Nair, Pravin K and Ciesek, Sandra and Olaru, Ioana Diana and Marques, Laura and Pontali, Emanuele and Naunheim, Alexandra and Lieb, Adrian and Gerhard, Markus and Farooqi, Joveria Qais and Turtle, Lance and Méndez, Gustavo Adolfo and Cox, Rebecca Jane and Goodman, Nigel and Caceca, Billie and Pemán, Javier and Dawood, Halima and Askling, Helena Hervius and Fomsgaard, Anders and Hernández, Alejandra Calderón and Staehelin, Cornelia and ChiaandYing, Liu and Icardi, Giancarlo and Castagnola, Elio and Salzer, Helmut J F and Lundgren, Jens and Javadli, Samir and Forghieri, Fabio}, article_location = {ENGLAND}, article_number = {102676}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmaid.2023.102676}, keywords = {Disease X; Ebola virus; Infectious disease; Influenza viruses; Pandemic; SARS-CoV; SARS-CoV-2; WHO R&D Blueprint for action to prevent epidemics}, language = {eng}, issn = {1477-8939}, journal = {TRAVEL MEDICINE AND INFECTIOUS DISEASE}, title = {Predicting the next pandemic: VACCELERATE ranking of the World Health Organization's Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1477893923001369}, volume = {57}, year = {2024} }
TY - JOUR ID - 2394820 AU - Salmanton-García, Jon - Wipfler, Pauline - Leckler, Janina - Nauclér, Pontus - Mallon, Patrick W - Bruijning-Verhagen, Patricia C J L - Heinz-Joseph, Schmitt - Bethe, Ullrich - Olesen, Ole F - Stewart, Fiona A - Albus, Kerstin - Cornely, Oliver A - Busch, Martin - Seifert, Ulrike - Widmer, Andreas - Nagao, Miki - Rello, Jordi - Todorova, Tatina - Cviljević, Sabina - Heath, Christopher H - Jančorienė, Ligita - Fischer, Thea Koelsen - Orth, Hans Martin - Johansen, Isik Somuncu - Doymaz, Mehmet - Tragiannidis, Athanasios - Löscher, Thomas - Jin-Fu, Xu - Husa, Petr - Oteo, José Antonio - Issack, Mohammad I - Zeitlinger, Markus - Grand, Roger Le - Zdziarski, Przemysław - Demirkan, Fatih - Amador, Paloma Merino - García-Lozano, Tomás - Cao, Qing - Vázquez, Lourdes - Caeiro, Juan Pablo - Hermans, Peter - Nahrwar, Shahroch - Avsar, Korkut - Kumar, Deepak - Fernández, Norma - Mardani, Masoud - Segal, Esther - Pan, Angelo - Gkentzi, Despoina - Gioula, Georgia - Cortés, Jorge Alberto - Oliveira, Joaquim - Damme, Pierre van - Zaili, Mohd Zaki Bin Mohd - Antinori, Spinello - Zablockienė, Birutė - Papazisis, Georgios - Aneke, Chioma Inyang - Valerio, Maricela - McConkey, Samuel - Aujayeb, Avinash - Azzini, Anna Maria - Roganović, Jelena - Mohn, Kristin Greve-Isdahl - Kremsner, Peter - Gkrania-Klotsas, Effrossyni - Corzo, Dora - Khanna, Nina - Smiatacz, Tomasz - Scheithauer, Simone - Merelli, Maria - Klempa, Boris - Vrḫovac, Radovan - Ruggiero, Antonio - Chaudhary, Pankaj - Maquera-Afaray, Julio - Ekkelenkamp, Miquel - Jindra, Pavel - Pantić, Nikola - Guerra, Gemma Jiménez - Weiss, Guenter - Roohi, Behrad - Argyropoulos, Christos D - Silfverdal, Sven Aprne - Praet, Jens van - Bal, Zumrut Sahbudak - Kanj, Souha - Young, Barnaby - Pana, Zoi Dorothea - Roilides, Emmanuel - Stearns, Stephen C - Wauters, Joost - Baño, Jesús Rodríguez - Pletz, Mathias W - Travar, Maja - Kühn, Steven - Riera, Fernando - Cornely, Daniel - Laura, Vlad Jeni - Koehler, Philipp - Eley, Brian - Nair, Pravin K - Ciesek, Sandra - Olaru, Ioana Diana - Marques, Laura - Pontali, Emanuele - Naunheim, Alexandra - Lieb, Adrian - Gerhard, Markus - Farooqi, Joveria Qais - Turtle, Lance - Méndez, Gustavo Adolfo - Cox, Rebecca Jane - Goodman, Nigel - Caceca, Billie - Pemán, Javier - Dawood, Halima - Askling, Helena Hervius - Fomsgaard, Anders - Hernández, Alejandra Calderón - Staehelin, Cornelia - Chia-Ying, Liu - Icardi, Giancarlo - Castagnola, Elio - Salzer, Helmut J F - Lundgren, Jens - Javadli, Samir - Forghieri, Fabio PY - 2024 TI - Predicting the next pandemic: VACCELERATE ranking of the World Health Organization's Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics JF - TRAVEL MEDICINE AND INFECTIOUS DISEASE VL - 57 IS - 102676 SP - 1-6 EP - 1-6 PB - ELSEVIER SCI LTD SN - 14778939 KW - Disease X KW - Ebola virus KW - Infectious disease KW - Influenza viruses KW - Pandemic KW - SARS-CoV KW - SARS-CoV-2 KW - WHO R&D Blueprint for action to prevent epidemics UR - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1477893923001369 N2 - Introduction: The World Health Organization (WHO)’s Research and Development (R&D) Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics, a plan of action, highlighted several infectious diseases as crucial targets for prevention. These infections were selected based on a thorough assessment of factors such as transmissibility, infectivity, severity, and evolutionary potential. In line with this blueprint, the VACCELERATE Site Network approached infectious disease experts to rank the diseases listed in the WHO R&D Blueprint according to their perceived risk of triggering a pandemic. VACCELERATE is an EU-funded collaborative European network of clinical trial sites, established to respond to emerging pandemics and enhance vaccine development capabilities. Methods: Between February and June 2023, a survey was conducted using an online form to collect data from members of the VACCELERATE Site Network and infectious disease experts worldwide. Participants were asked to rank various pathogens based on their perceived risk of causing a pandemic, including those listed in the WHO R&D Blueprint and additional pathogens. Results: A total of 187 responses were obtained from infectious disease experts representing 57 countries, with Germany, Spain, and Italy providing the highest number of replies. Influenza viruses received the highest rankings among the pathogens, with 79 % of participants including them in their top rankings. Disease X, SARSCoV- 2, SARS-CoV, and Ebola virus were also ranked highly. Hantavirus, Lassa virus, Nipah virus, and henipavirus were among the bottom-ranked pathogens in terms of pandemic potential. Conclusion: Influenza, SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2, and Ebola virus were found to be the most concerning pathogens with pandemic potential, characterised by transmissibility through respiratory droplets and a reported history of epidemic or pandemic outbreaks. ER -
SALMANTON-GARCÍA, Jon; Pauline WIPFLER; Janina LECKLER; Pontus NAUCLÉR; Patrick W MALLON; Patricia C J L BRUIJNING-VERHAGEN; Schmitt HEINZ-JOSEPH; Ullrich BETHE; Ole F OLESEN; Fiona A STEWART; Kerstin ALBUS; Oliver A CORNELY; Martin BUSCH; Ulrike SEIFERT; Andreas WIDMER; Miki NAGAO; Jordi RELLO; Tatina TODOROVA; Sabina CVILJEVI$\backslash$'C; Christopher H HEATH; Ligita JANČORIENĖ; Thea Koelsen FISCHER; Hans Martin ORTH; Isik Somuncu JOHANSEN; Mehmet DOYMAZ; Athanasios TRAGIANNIDIS; Thomas LÖSCHER; Xu JIN-FU; Petr HUSA; José Antonio OTEO; Mohammad I ISSACK; Markus ZEITLINGER; Roger Le GRAND; Przemysław ZDZIARSKI; Fatih DEMIRKAN; Paloma Merino AMADOR; Tomás GARCÍA-LOZANO; Qing CAO; Lourdes VÁZQUEZ; Juan Pablo CAEIRO; Peter HERMANS; Shahroch NAHRWAR; Korkut AVSAR; Deepak KUMAR; Norma FERNÁNDEZ; Masoud MARDANI; Esther SEGAL; Angelo PAN; Despoina GKENTZI; Georgia GIOULA; Jorge Alberto CORTÉS; Joaquim OLIVEIRA; Pierre van DAMME; Mohd Zaki Bin Mohd ZAILI; Spinello ANTINORI; Birutė ZABLOCKIENĖ; Georgios PAPAZISIS; Chioma Inyang ANEKE; Maricela VALERIO; Samuel MCCONKEY; Avinash AUJAYEB; Anna Maria AZZINI; Jelena ROGANOVI$\backslash$'C; Kristin Greve-Isdahl MOHN; Peter KREMSNER; Effrossyni GKRANIA-KLOTSAS; Dora CORZO; Nina KHANNA; Tomasz SMIATACZ; Simone SCHEITHAUER; Maria MERELLI; Boris KLEMPA; Radovan VRḪOVAC; Antonio RUGGIERO; Pankaj CHAUDHARY; Julio MAQUERA-AFARAY; Miquel EKKELENKAMP; Pavel JINDRA; Nikola PANTI$\backslash$'C; Gemma Jiménez GUERRA; Guenter WEISS; Behrad ROOHI; Christos D ARGYROPOULOS; Sven Aprne SILFVERDAL; Jens van PRAET; Zumrut Sahbudak BAL; Souha KANJ; Barnaby YOUNG; Zoi Dorothea PANA; Emmanuel ROILIDES; Stephen C STEARNS; Joost WAUTERS; Jesús Rodríguez BAÑO; Mathias W PLETZ; Maja TRAVAR; Steven KÜHN; Fernando RIERA; Daniel CORNELY; Vlad Jeni LAURA; Philipp KOEHLER; Brian ELEY; Pravin K NAIR; Sandra CIESEK; Ioana Diana OLARU; Laura MARQUES; Emanuele PONTALI; Alexandra NAUNHEIM; Adrian LIEB; Markus GERHARD; Joveria Qais FAROOQI; Lance TURTLE; Gustavo Adolfo MÉNDEZ; Rebecca Jane COX; Nigel GOODMAN; Billie CACECA; Javier PEMÁN; Halima DAWOOD; Helena Hervius ASKLING; Anders FOMSGAARD; Alejandra Calderón HERNÁNDEZ; Cornelia STAEHELIN; Liu CHIA-YING; Giancarlo ICARDI; Elio CASTAGNOLA; Helmut J F SALZER; Jens LUNDGREN; Samir JAVADLI a Fabio FORGHIERI. Predicting the next pandemic: VACCELERATE ranking of the World Health Organization's Blueprint for Action to Prevent Epidemics. \textit{TRAVEL MEDICINE AND INFECTIOUS DISEASE}. ENGLAND: ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2024, roč.~57, č.~102676, s.~1-6. ISSN~1477-8939. Dostupné z: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tmaid.2023.102676.