Prediction of individual lifetime cardiovascular risk and potential treatment benefit: development and recalibration of the LIFE-CVD2 model to four European risk regions
HAGEMAN, Steven H. J.; Steven KAPTOGE; Tamar I. DE VRIES; Wentian LU; Janet M. KIST et al.
Prediction of individual lifetime cardiovascular risk and potential treatment benefit: development and recalibration of the LIFE-CVD2 model to four European risk regions
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HAGEMAN, Steven H. J.; Steven KAPTOGE; Tamar I. DE VRIES; Wentian LU; Janet M. KIST; Hendrikus J. A. VAN OS; Mattijs E. NUMANS; Kristi LAELL; Martin BOBÁK; Hynek PIKHART; Ruzena KUBINOVA; Sofia MALYUTINA; Andrzej PAJAK; Abdonas TAMOSIUNAS; Raimund ERBEL; Andreas STANG; Boerge SCHMIDT; Sara SCHRAMM; Thomas R. BOLTON; Sarah SPACKMAN; Stephan J. L. BAKKER; Michael BLAHA; Joalnda M. A. BOER; Amelie BONNEFOND; Hermann BRENNER; Eric J. BRUNNER; Nancy R. COOK; Karina DAVIDSON; Elaine DENNISON; Chiara DONFRANCESCO; Marcus DOERR; James S. FLOYD; Ian FORD; Michael FU; Ron T. GANSEVOORT; Simona GIAMPAOLI; Richard F. GILLUM; Agustin GOMEZ-DE-LA-CAMARA; Lise Lund HAHEIM; Per-Olof HANSSON; Peter HARMS; Steve E. HUMPHRIES; M. Kamran IKRAM; J. Wouter JUKEMA; Maryam KAVOUSI; Stefan KIECHL; Anna KUCHARSKA-NEWTON; David Lora PABLOS; Kunihiro MATSUSHITA; Haakon E. MEYER; Karel G. M. MOONS; Martin Bodtker MORTENSEN; Mirthe MUILWIJK; Borge G. NORDESTGAARD; Chris PACKARD; Luigi PAMIERI; Demosthenes PANAGIOTAKOS; Annette PETERS; Louis POTIER; Rui PROVIDENCIA; Bruce M. PSATY; Pau M. RIDKER; Beatriz RODRIGUEZ; Annika ROSENGREN; Naveed SATTAR; Ben SCHOETTKER; Joseph E. SCHWARTZ; Steven SHEA; Martin J. SHIPLEY; Reecha SOFAT; Barbara THORAND; W. M. Monique VERSCHUREN; Henry VOELZKE; Nicholas J. WAREHAM; Leo WESTBURY; Peter WILLEIT; Bin ZHOU; John DANESH; Frank L. J. VISSEREN; Emanuele DI ANGELANTONIO; Lisa PENNELLS a Jannick A. N. DORRESTEIJN
Vydání
EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF PREVENTIVE CARDIOLOGY, LONDON, SAGE PUBLICATIONS LTD, 2024, 2047-4873
Aims The 2021 European Society of Cardiology prevention guidelines recommend the use of (lifetime) risk prediction models to aid decisions regarding initiation of prevention. We aimed to update and systematically recalibrate the LIFEtime-perspective CardioVascular Disease (LIFE-CVD) model to four European risk regions for the estimation of lifetime CVD risk for apparently healthy individuals.Methods and results The updated LIFE-CVD (i.e. LIFE-CVD2) models were derived using individual participant data from 44 cohorts in 13 countries (687 135 individuals without established CVD, 30 939 CVD events in median 10.7 years of follow-up). LIFE-CVD2 uses sex-specific functions to estimate the lifetime risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD events with adjustment for the competing risk of non-CVD death and is systematically recalibrated to four distinct European risk regions. The updated models showed good discrimination in external validation among 1 657 707 individuals (61 311 CVD events) from eight additional European cohorts in seven countries, with a pooled C-index of 0.795 (95% confidence interval 0.767-0.822). Predicted and observed CVD event risks were well calibrated in population-wide electronic health records data in the UK (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) and the Netherlands (Extramural LUMC Academic Network). When using LIFE-CVD2 to estimate potential gain in CVD-free life expectancy from preventive therapy, projections varied by risk region reflecting important regional differences in absolute lifetime risk. For example, a 50-year-old smoking woman with a systolic blood pressure (SBP) of 140 mmHg was estimated to gain 0.9 years in the low-risk region vs. 1.6 years in the very high-risk region from lifelong 10 mmHg SBP reduction. The benefit of smoking cessation for this individual ranged from 3.6 years in the low-risk region to 4.8 years in the very high-risk region.Conclusion By taking into account geographical differences in CVD incidence using contemporary representative data sources, the recalibrated LIFE-CVD2 model provides a more accurate tool for the prediction of lifetime risk and CVD-free life expectancy for individuals without previous CVD, facilitating shared decision-making for cardiovascular prevention as recommended by 2021 European guidelines.
HAGEMAN, Steven H. J.; Steven KAPTOGE; Tamar I. DE VRIES; Wentian LU; Janet M. KIST; Hendrikus J. A. VAN OS; Mattijs E. NUMANS; Kristi LAELL; Martin BOBÁK; Hynek PIKHART; Ruzena KUBINOVA; Sofia MALYUTINA; Andrzej PAJAK; Abdonas TAMOSIUNAS; Raimund ERBEL; Andreas STANG; Boerge SCHMIDT; Sara SCHRAMM; Thomas R. BOLTON; Sarah SPACKMAN; Stephan J. L. BAKKER; Michael BLAHA; Joalnda M. A. BOER; Amelie BONNEFOND; Hermann BRENNER; Eric J. BRUNNER; Nancy R. COOK; Karina DAVIDSON; Elaine DENNISON; Chiara DONFRANCESCO; Marcus DOERR; James S. FLOYD; Ian FORD; Michael FU; Ron T. GANSEVOORT; Simona GIAMPAOLI; Richard F. GILLUM; Agustin GOMEZ-DE-LA-CAMARA; Lise Lund HAHEIM; Per-Olof HANSSON; Peter HARMS; Steve E. HUMPHRIES; M. Kamran IKRAM; J. Wouter JUKEMA; Maryam KAVOUSI; Stefan KIECHL; Anna KUCHARSKA-NEWTON; David Lora PABLOS; Kunihiro MATSUSHITA; Haakon E. MEYER; Karel G. M. MOONS; Martin Bodtker MORTENSEN; Mirthe MUILWIJK; Borge G. NORDESTGAARD; Chris PACKARD; Luigi PAMIERI; Demosthenes PANAGIOTAKOS; Annette PETERS; Louis POTIER; Rui PROVIDENCIA; Bruce M. PSATY; Pau M. RIDKER; Beatriz RODRIGUEZ; Annika ROSENGREN; Naveed SATTAR; Ben SCHOETTKER; Joseph E. SCHWARTZ; Steven SHEA; Martin J. SHIPLEY; Reecha SOFAT; Barbara THORAND; W. M. Monique VERSCHUREN; Henry VOELZKE; Nicholas J. WAREHAM; Leo WESTBURY; Peter WILLEIT; Bin ZHOU; John DANESH; Frank L. J. VISSEREN; Emanuele DI ANGELANTONIO; Lisa PENNELLS a Jannick A. N. DORRESTEIJN. Prediction of individual lifetime cardiovascular risk and potential treatment benefit: development and recalibration of the LIFE-CVD2 model to four European risk regions. EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF PREVENTIVE CARDIOLOGY. LONDON: SAGE PUBLICATIONS LTD, 2024, roč. 31, č. 14, s. 1690-1699. ISSN 2047-4873. Dostupné z: https://doi.org/10.1093/eurjpc/zwae174.
@article{2451324, author = {Hageman, Steven H. J. and Kaptoge, Steven and de Vries, Tamar I. and Lu, Wentian and Kist, Janet M. and van Os, Hendrikus J. A. and Numans, Mattijs E. and Laell, Kristi and Bobák, Martin and Pikhart, Hynek and Kubinova, Ruzena and Malyutina, Sofia and Pajak, Andrzej and Tamosiunas, Abdonas and Erbel, Raimund and Stang, Andreas and Schmidt, Boerge and Schramm, Sara and Bolton, Thomas R. and Spackman, Sarah and Bakker, Stephan J. L. and Blaha, Michael and Boer, Joalnda M. A. and Bonnefond, Amelie and Brenner, Hermann and Brunner, Eric J. and Cook, Nancy R. and Davidson, Karina and Dennison, Elaine and Donfrancesco, Chiara and Doerr, Marcus and Floyd, James S. and Ford, Ian and Fu, Michael and Gansevoort, Ron T. and Giampaoli, Simona and Gillum, Richard F. and GomezanddeandlaandCamara, Agustin and Haheim, Lise Lund and Hansson, PerandOlof and Harms, Peter and Humphries, Steve E. and Ikram, M. Kamran and Jukema, J. Wouter and Kavousi, Maryam and Kiechl, Stefan and KucharskaandNewton, Anna and Pablos, David Lora and Matsushita, Kunihiro and Meyer, Haakon E. and Moons, Karel G. M. and Mortensen, Martin Bodtker and Muilwijk, Mirthe and Nordestgaard, Borge G. and Packard, Chris and Pamieri, Luigi and Panagiotakos, Demosthenes and Peters, Annette and Potier, Louis and Providencia, Rui and Psaty, Bruce M. and Ridker, Pau M. and Rodriguez, Beatriz and Rosengren, Annika and Sattar, Naveed and Schoettker, Ben and Schwartz, Joseph E. and Shea, Steven and Shipley, Martin J. and Sofat, Reecha and Thorand, Barbara and Verschuren, W. M. Monique and Voelzke, Henry and Wareham, Nicholas J. and Westbury, Leo and Willeit, Peter and Zhou, Bin and Danesh, John and Visseren, Frank L. J. and Di Angelantonio, Emanuele and Pennells, Lisa and Dorresteijn, Jannick A. N.}, article_location = {LONDON}, article_number = {14}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.1093/eurjpc/zwae174}, keywords = {Risk prediction; Lifetime; Prevention; Cardiovascular disease; Primary prevention}, language = {eng}, issn = {2047-4873}, journal = {EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF PREVENTIVE CARDIOLOGY}, title = {Prediction of individual lifetime cardiovascular risk and potential treatment benefit: development and recalibration of the LIFE-CVD2 model to four European risk regions}, url = {https://academic.oup.com/eurjpc/article/31/14/1690/7675226?login=false}, volume = {31}, year = {2024} }
TY - JOUR ID - 2451324 AU - Hageman, Steven H. J. - Kaptoge, Steven - de Vries, Tamar I. - Lu, Wentian - Kist, Janet M. - van Os, Hendrikus J. A. - Numans, Mattijs E. - Laell, Kristi - Bobák, Martin - Pikhart, Hynek - Kubinova, Ruzena - Malyutina, Sofia - Pajak, Andrzej - Tamosiunas, Abdonas - Erbel, Raimund - Stang, Andreas - Schmidt, Boerge - Schramm, Sara - Bolton, Thomas R. - Spackman, Sarah - Bakker, Stephan J. L. - Blaha, Michael - Boer, Joalnda M. A. - Bonnefond, Amelie - Brenner, Hermann - Brunner, Eric J. - Cook, Nancy R. - Davidson, Karina - Dennison, Elaine - Donfrancesco, Chiara - Doerr, Marcus - Floyd, James S. - Ford, Ian - Fu, Michael - Gansevoort, Ron T. - Giampaoli, Simona - Gillum, Richard F. - Gomez-de-la-Camara, Agustin - Haheim, Lise Lund - Hansson, Per-Olof - Harms, Peter - Humphries, Steve E. - Ikram, M. Kamran - Jukema, J. Wouter - Kavousi, Maryam - Kiechl, Stefan - Kucharska-Newton, Anna - Pablos, David Lora - Matsushita, Kunihiro - Meyer, Haakon E. - Moons, Karel G. M. - Mortensen, Martin Bodtker - Muilwijk, Mirthe - Nordestgaard, Borge G. - Packard, Chris - Pamieri, Luigi - Panagiotakos, Demosthenes - Peters, Annette - Potier, Louis - Providencia, Rui - Psaty, Bruce M. - Ridker, Pau M. - Rodriguez, Beatriz - Rosengren, Annika - Sattar, Naveed - Schoettker, Ben - Schwartz, Joseph E. - Shea, Steven - Shipley, Martin J. - Sofat, Reecha - Thorand, Barbara - Verschuren, W. M. Monique - Voelzke, Henry - Wareham, Nicholas J. - Westbury, Leo - Willeit, Peter - Zhou, Bin - Danesh, John - Visseren, Frank L. J. - Di Angelantonio, Emanuele - Pennells, Lisa - Dorresteijn, Jannick A. N. PY - 2024 TI - Prediction of individual lifetime cardiovascular risk and potential treatment benefit: development and recalibration of the LIFE-CVD2 model to four European risk regions JF - EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF PREVENTIVE CARDIOLOGY VL - 31 IS - 14 SP - 1690-1699 EP - 1690-1699 PB - SAGE PUBLICATIONS LTD SN - 20474873 KW - Risk prediction KW - Lifetime KW - Prevention KW - Cardiovascular disease KW - Primary prevention UR - https://academic.oup.com/eurjpc/article/31/14/1690/7675226?login=false N2 - Aims The 2021 European Society of Cardiology prevention guidelines recommend the use of (lifetime) risk prediction models to aid decisions regarding initiation of prevention. We aimed to update and systematically recalibrate the LIFEtime-perspective CardioVascular Disease (LIFE-CVD) model to four European risk regions for the estimation of lifetime CVD risk for apparently healthy individuals.Methods and results The updated LIFE-CVD (i.e. LIFE-CVD2) models were derived using individual participant data from 44 cohorts in 13 countries (687 135 individuals without established CVD, 30 939 CVD events in median 10.7 years of follow-up). LIFE-CVD2 uses sex-specific functions to estimate the lifetime risk of fatal and non-fatal CVD events with adjustment for the competing risk of non-CVD death and is systematically recalibrated to four distinct European risk regions. The updated models showed good discrimination in external validation among 1 657 707 individuals (61 311 CVD events) from eight additional European cohorts in seven countries, with a pooled C-index of 0.795 (95% confidence interval 0.767-0.822). Predicted and observed CVD event risks were well calibrated in population-wide electronic health records data in the UK (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) and the Netherlands (Extramural LUMC Academic Network). When using LIFE-CVD2 to estimate potential gain in CVD-free life expectancy from preventive therapy, projections varied by risk region reflecting important regional differences in absolute lifetime risk. For example, a 50-year-old smoking woman with a systolic blood pressure (SBP) of 140 mmHg was estimated to gain 0.9 years in the low-risk region vs. 1.6 years in the very high-risk region from lifelong 10 mmHg SBP reduction. The benefit of smoking cessation for this individual ranged from 3.6 years in the low-risk region to 4.8 years in the very high-risk region.Conclusion By taking into account geographical differences in CVD incidence using contemporary representative data sources, the recalibrated LIFE-CVD2 model provides a more accurate tool for the prediction of lifetime risk and CVD-free life expectancy for individuals without previous CVD, facilitating shared decision-making for cardiovascular prevention as recommended by 2021 European guidelines. ER -
HAGEMAN, Steven H. J.; Steven KAPTOGE; Tamar I. DE VRIES; Wentian LU; Janet M. KIST; Hendrikus J. A. VAN OS; Mattijs E. NUMANS; Kristi LAELL; Martin BOBÁK; Hynek PIKHART; Ruzena KUBINOVA; Sofia MALYUTINA; Andrzej PAJAK; Abdonas TAMOSIUNAS; Raimund ERBEL; Andreas STANG; Boerge SCHMIDT; Sara SCHRAMM; Thomas R. BOLTON; Sarah SPACKMAN; Stephan J. L. BAKKER; Michael BLAHA; Joalnda M. A. BOER; Amelie BONNEFOND; Hermann BRENNER; Eric J. BRUNNER; Nancy R. COOK; Karina DAVIDSON; Elaine DENNISON; Chiara DONFRANCESCO; Marcus DOERR; James S. FLOYD; Ian FORD; Michael FU; Ron T. GANSEVOORT; Simona GIAMPAOLI; Richard F. GILLUM; Agustin GOMEZ-DE-LA-CAMARA; Lise Lund HAHEIM; Per-Olof HANSSON; Peter HARMS; Steve E. HUMPHRIES; M. Kamran IKRAM; J. Wouter JUKEMA; Maryam KAVOUSI; Stefan KIECHL; Anna KUCHARSKA-NEWTON; David Lora PABLOS; Kunihiro MATSUSHITA; Haakon E. MEYER; Karel G. M. MOONS; Martin Bodtker MORTENSEN; Mirthe MUILWIJK; Borge G. NORDESTGAARD; Chris PACKARD; Luigi PAMIERI; Demosthenes PANAGIOTAKOS; Annette PETERS; Louis POTIER; Rui PROVIDENCIA; Bruce M. PSATY; Pau M. RIDKER; Beatriz RODRIGUEZ; Annika ROSENGREN; Naveed SATTAR; Ben SCHOETTKER; Joseph E. SCHWARTZ; Steven SHEA; Martin J. SHIPLEY; Reecha SOFAT; Barbara THORAND; W. M. Monique VERSCHUREN; Henry VOELZKE; Nicholas J. WAREHAM; Leo WESTBURY; Peter WILLEIT; Bin ZHOU; John DANESH; Frank L. J. VISSEREN; Emanuele DI ANGELANTONIO; Lisa PENNELLS a Jannick A. N. DORRESTEIJN. Prediction of individual lifetime cardiovascular risk and potential treatment benefit: development and recalibration of the LIFE-CVD2 model to four European risk regions. \textit{EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF PREVENTIVE CARDIOLOGY}. LONDON: SAGE PUBLICATIONS LTD, 2024, roč.~31, č.~14, s.~1690-1699. ISSN~2047-4873. Dostupné z: https://doi.org/10.1093/eurjpc/zwae174.