Shaky ground, shaky politics? Effects of Turkey’s 2023
earthquakes on Erdoğan’s political survival

J 2025

Shaky ground, shaky politics? Effects of Turkey’s 2023 earthquakes on Erdoğan’s political survival

SPÁČ, Peter; Miriam MATEJOVA; Jakub JUSKO a Petr VODA

Základní údaje

Originální název

Shaky ground, shaky politics? Effects of Turkey’s 2023 earthquakes on Erdoğan’s political survival

Autoři

SPÁČ, Peter ; Miriam MATEJOVA ; Jakub JUSKO a Petr VODA

Vydání

Environmental Hazards, Abingdon, Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis, 2025, 1747-7891

Další údaje

Jazyk

angličtina

Typ výsledku

Článek v odborném periodiku

Obor

50601 Political science

Stát vydavatele

Velká Británie a Severní Irsko

Utajení

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Odkazy

article - open access

Impakt faktor

Impact factor: 1.700 v roce 2024

Organizační jednotka

Fakulta sociálních studií

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2024.2442446

UT WoS

001385387300001

EID Scopus

2-s2.0-85213457993

Klíčová slova anglicky

electoral behavior; disaster; earthquake; Türkiye; Erdoğan; leader survival

Štítky

14231013, 14235040, EV_FSS25, online first

Příznaky

Mezinárodní význam, Recenzováno

Změněno: 17. 3. 2025 15:13, Mgr. Blanka Farkašová

Anotace

V originále

How do disasters from natural hazards affect an incumbent’s re-election? This study contributes new evidence to the empirically mixed literature on leader’s political survival after disasters. Relying on a quantitative analysis, this article examines two major earthquakes that occurred in Türkiye in February 2023 and their impact on the presidential election held three months later. The extant literature suggests that disasters from natural hazards may either increase or decrease public support for the incumbent in the damaged areas. Furthermore, the incumbent is likely to maintain or increase voters’ support in disaster affected areas where pre-existing attitudes are favorable. This study’s findings reveal that the February 2023 earthquakes – and specifically aspects of the disaster response – brought electoral rewards to Türkiye’s president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, including in his pre-existing electoral strongholds. The results are robust and underscore the relevance of studying political effects of disasters in various types of political regimes.

Návaznosti

GA25-17711S, projekt VaV

Název: Jak ekologické katastrofy ovlivňují politické chování?

Investor: Grantová agentura ČR, Jak ekologické katastrofy ovlivňují politické chování?

Citovat

SPÁČ, Peter; Miriam MATEJOVA; Jakub JUSKO a Petr VODA. Shaky ground, shaky politics? Effects of Turkey’s 2023 earthquakes on Erdoğan’s political survival. Environmental Hazards. Abingdon: Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis, 2025, s. 1-21. ISSN 1747-7891. Dostupné z: https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2024.2442446.

@article{2461105,
   author = {Spáč, Peter and Matejova, Miriam and Jusko, Jakub and Voda, Petr},
   article_location = {Abingdon},
   doi = {https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2024.2442446},
   keywords = {electoral behavior; disaster; earthquake; Türkiye; Erdoğan; leader survival},
   language = {eng},
   issn = {1747-7891},
   journal = {Environmental Hazards},
   title = {Shaky ground, shaky politics? Effects of Turkey’s 2023 earthquakes on Erdoğan’s political survival},
   url = {https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17477891.2024.2442446},
   year = {2025}
}

TY  - JOUR
ID  - 2461105
AU  - Spáč, Peter - Matejova, Miriam - Jusko, Jakub - Voda, Petr
PY  - 2025
TI  - Shaky ground, shaky politics? Effects of Turkey’s 2023 earthquakes on Erdoğan’s political survival
JF  - Environmental Hazards
SP  - 1-21
EP  - 1-21
PB  - Routledge Journals, Taylor & Francis
SN  - 17477891
KW  - electoral behavior
KW  - disaster
KW  - earthquake
KW  - Türkiye
KW  - Erdoğan
KW  - leader survival
UR  - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17477891.2024.2442446
N2  - How do disasters from natural hazards affect an incumbent’s re-election? This study contributes new evidence to the empirically mixed literature on leader’s political survival after disasters. Relying on a quantitative analysis, this article examines two major earthquakes that occurred in Türkiye in February 2023 and their impact on the presidential election held three months later. The extant literature suggests that disasters from natural hazards may either increase or decrease public support for the incumbent in the damaged areas. Furthermore, the incumbent is likely to maintain or increase voters’ support in disaster affected areas where pre-existing attitudes are favorable. This study’s findings reveal that the February 2023 earthquakes – and specifically aspects of the disaster response – brought electoral rewards to Türkiye’s president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, including in his pre-existing electoral strongholds. The results are robust and underscore the relevance of studying political effects of disasters in various types of political regimes.
ER  -

SPÁČ, Peter; Miriam MATEJOVA; Jakub JUSKO a Petr VODA. Shaky ground, shaky politics? Effects of Turkey’s 2023 earthquakes on Erdoğan’s political survival. \textit{Environmental Hazards}. Abingdon: Routledge Journals, Taylor \&{} Francis, 2025, s.~1-21. ISSN~1747-7891. Dostupné z: https://doi.org/10.1080/17477891.2024.2442446.

Přehled o publikaci