2025
Projections of streamflow intermittence under climate change in European drying river networks
MIMEAU, Louise; Annika KUENNE; Alexandre DEVERS; Flora BRANGER; Sven KRALISCH et. al.Základní údaje
Originální název
Projections of streamflow intermittence under climate change in European drying river networks
Autoři
MIMEAU, Louise (garant); Annika KUENNE; Alexandre DEVERS; Flora BRANGER; Sven KRALISCH; Claire LAUVERNET; Jean-Philippe VIDAL; Nuria BONADA; Zoltan CSABAI; Heikki MYKRAE; Petr PAŘIL (203 Česká republika, domácí); Luka POLOVIĆ (191 Chorvatsko, domácí) a Thibault DATRY
Vydání
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, GOTTINGEN, COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH, 2025, 1027-5606
Další údaje
Jazyk
angličtina
Typ výsledku
Článek v odborném periodiku
Obor
10500 1.5. Earth and related environmental sciences
Stát vydavatele
Německo
Utajení
není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství
Odkazy
Impakt faktor
Impact factor: 5.700 v roce 2023
Organizační jednotka
Přírodovědecká fakulta
UT WoS
001450818600001
EID Scopus
2-s2.0-105001042293
Klíčová slova anglicky
climate change; drought; extreme event; land use change; low flow; river flow; streamflow
Štítky
Příznaky
Mezinárodní význam, Recenzováno
Změněno: 27. 6. 2025 07:58, Mgr. Marie Novosadová Šípková, DiS.
Anotace
V originále
Climate and land use changes, as well as human water use and flow alteration, are causing worldwide shifts in river flow dynamics. During the last decades, low flows, flow intermittence, and drying have increased in many regions of the world, including Europe. This trend is projected to continue and amplify in the future, resulting in more frequent and intense hydrological droughts. However, due to a lack of data and studies on temporary rivers in the past, little is known about the processes governing the development of flow intermittence and drying, their timing and frequency, or their long-term evolution under climate change. Moreover, understanding the impact of climate change on the drying up of rivers is crucial to assess the impact of climate change on aquatic ecosystems, including the biodiversity and functional integrity of freshwater systems. This study is one of the first to present future projections of drying in intermittent river networks and to analyse future changes in the drying patterns at a high spatial and temporal resolution. Flow intermittence projections were produced using a hybrid hydrological model forced with climate projection data from 1985 until 2100 under three climate scenarios in six European drying river networks. The studied watershed areas are situated in different biogeographic regions, located in Spain, France, Croatia, Hungary, Czechia, and Finland, and their areas range from 150 to 350 km2. Additionally, flow intermittence indicators were developed and calculated to assess (1) changes in the characteristics of the drying spells at the reach scale and (2) changes in the spatial extent of drying in the river network at various time intervals. The results for all three climate scenarios show that drying patterns are projected to increase and expand in time and space, despite differences in the amplitude of changes. Temporally, in addition to the average frequency of drying events, the duration increases over the year. Seasonal changes are expected to result in an earlier onset and longer persistence of drying throughout the year. Summer drying maxima are likely to shift to earlier in the spring, with extended drying periods or additional maxima occurring in autumn and extending into the winter season in some regions. A trend analysis of extreme events shows that the extreme dry spells observed in recent years could become regular by the end of the century. Additionally, we observe transitions from perennial to intermittent reaches in the future.
Návaznosti
| 869226, interní kód MU |
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