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@inproceedings{580943, author = {David, Stanislav}, address = {Trenčín}, booktitle = {Trendy hospodárskeho a sociálneho rozvoja v krajinách EU}, keywords = {Business cycle; Linearized DSGE model; solution of DSGE model; Kalman Filter with log likelihood optimalization}, language = {eng}, location = {Trenčín}, isbn = {80-8075-094-7}, pages = {30-36}, publisher = {Trenčianská univerzita Alexandra Dubčeka}, title = {Estimation of the Czech real business cycle model with prediction}, year = {2005} }
TY - JOUR ID - 580943 AU - David, Stanislav PY - 2005 TI - Estimation of the Czech real business cycle model with prediction PB - Trenčianská univerzita Alexandra Dubčeka CY - Trenčín SN - 8080750947 KW - Business cycle KW - Linearized DSGE model KW - solution of DSGE model KW - Kalman Filter with log likelihood optimalization N2 - In recent years has been developed new approach of the maximum likelihood estimation of the business cycle models incorporating rational expectations based on the method of the Blanchard and Kahn by Peter N. Ireland. Ireland has estimated the models with quarterly time-series data from the United States economy. It was a stimulus to verify result with the Czech Republic data. The paper begins by presenting small New Keynesian DSGE model. It goes on to show the estimated model with quarterly time-series data of the Czech economy. The model's parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood, as described by Hamilton. The Kalman filter is used to evaluate the negative log likelihood function. The last section presents the forecasts of the model. Not just the prediction of the model but also the prediction of the similar VAR models. ER -
DAVID, Stanislav. Estimation of the Czech real business cycle model with prediction. In \textit{Trendy hospodárskeho a sociálneho rozvoja v krajinách EU}. Trenčín: Trenčianská univerzita Alexandra Dubčeka, 2005, s.~30-36. ISBN~80-8075-094-7.
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