Estimation Of The Mean Sojourn Time And Sensitivity In
Mammographic Screening Programme Using Bayesian Methods

a 2009

Estimation Of The Mean Sojourn Time And Sensitivity In Mammographic Screening Programme Using Bayesian Methods

BUREŠOVÁ, Lucie; Ondřej MÁJEK; Eva GELNAROVÁ; Jan DANEŠ; Helena BARTOŇKOVÁ et al.

Základní údaje

Originální název

Estimation Of The Mean Sojourn Time And Sensitivity In Mammographic Screening Programme Using Bayesian Methods

Název česky

Odhad "mean sojourn time" a senzitivity v mamografickém screeningovém programu použitím bayesovských metod

Autoři

BUREŠOVÁ, Lucie; Ondřej MÁJEK ; Eva GELNAROVÁ; Jan DANEŠ; Helena BARTOŇKOVÁ; Miroslava SKOVAJSOVÁ a Ladislav DUŠEK

Vydání

2009

Další údaje

Typ výsledku

Konferenční abstrakt

Utajení

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Označené pro přenos do RIV

Organizační jednotka

Institut biostatistiky a analýz

Klíčová slova česky

mamografický screening; preklinická screeningem detekovatelná fáze; senzitivita

Klíčová slova anglicky

mamography screening; preclinical screen-detectable phase; sensitivity

Změněno: 30. 9. 2009 14:22, RNDr. Lucie Burešová

Anotace

V originále

Background: Organized breast cancer screening programme in the Czech Republic was initiated in September 2002. Free biennial preventive mammography examinations are offered to women aged 45-69. Important parameters in assessing the quality of the screening process and natural history of breast cancer are: mean duration of the preclinical screen-detectable phase (the carcinoma is without clinical signs but it could be found by the screening test - mammography), which is called mean sojourn time (MST), and sensitivity of mammography (capability of the test to detect cancer). These parameters are not directly observable; however, they can be estimated using mathematical models. Objective: To estimate the MST and sensitivity of mammography in women aged 50-59 and 60-69 years. Methods: Using the numbers of examinations and numbers of tumours detected by screening in the first three rounds, three state Markov models with states: disease free – preclinical screendetectable – clinical disease were constructed. In the first model, we assumed a constant interval between screens, in the second model, there was different time interval between screens. Analysis was performed using WinBUGS software. Results: In 2002-2007, there were 741,655 examinations performed in women aged 50-59 and 434,165 in women aged 60-69 in the first three screening rounds. According to the first model, the estimated MST was 2.73 years for women aged 50-59 and 3.30 for women aged 60-69. The estimated sensitivity of mammography was 73% for women aged 50-59 and 93% for women aged 60-69. As regards the second model, the estimated MST was 2.31 years for women aged 50- 59 and 3.12 for women aged 60-69. The estimated sensitivity of mammography was 84% for women aged 50-59 and 95% for women aged 60-69. Conclusion: Two year screening interval for mammography examinations is appropriate for programme in the Czech Republic. Sensitivity of mammography is adequate in age groups covered by the programme.

Citovat

BUREŠOVÁ, Lucie; Ondřej MÁJEK; Eva GELNAROVÁ; Jan DANEŠ; Helena BARTOŇKOVÁ; Miroslava SKOVAJSOVÁ a Ladislav DUŠEK. Estimation Of The Mean Sojourn Time And Sensitivity In Mammographic Screening Programme Using Bayesian Methods. 2009.

@proceedings{847872,
   author = {Burešová, Lucie and Májek, Ondřej and Gelnarová, Eva and Daneš, Jan and Bartoňková, Helena and Skovajsová, Miroslava and Dušek, Ladislav},
   keywords = {mamography screening; preclinical screen-detectable phase; sensitivity},
   title = {Estimation Of The Mean Sojourn Time And Sensitivity In Mammographic Screening Programme Using Bayesian Methods},
   year = {2009}
}

TY  - CONF
ID  - 847872
AU  - Burešová, Lucie - Májek, Ondřej - Gelnarová, Eva - Daneš, Jan - Bartoňková, Helena - Skovajsová, Miroslava - Dušek, Ladislav
PY  - 2009
TI  - Estimation Of The Mean Sojourn Time And Sensitivity In Mammographic Screening Programme Using Bayesian Methods
KW  - mamography screening
KW  - preclinical screen-detectable phase
KW  - sensitivity
N2  - Background: Organized breast cancer screening programme in the Czech Republic was initiated in September 2002. Free biennial preventive mammography examinations are offered to women aged 45-69. Important parameters in assessing the quality of the screening process and natural history of breast cancer are: mean duration of the preclinical screen-detectable phase (the carcinoma is without clinical signs but it could be found by the screening test - mammography), which is called mean sojourn time (MST), and sensitivity of mammography (capability of the test to detect cancer). These parameters are not directly observable; however, they can be estimated using mathematical models. Objective: To estimate the MST and sensitivity of mammography in women aged 50-59 and 60-69 years. Methods: Using the numbers of examinations and numbers of tumours detected by screening in the first three rounds, three state Markov models with states: disease free – preclinical screendetectable – clinical disease were constructed. In the first model, we assumed a constant interval between screens, in the second model, there was different time interval between screens. Analysis was performed using WinBUGS software. Results: In 2002-2007, there were 741,655 examinations performed in women aged 50-59 and 434,165 in women aged 60-69 in the first three screening rounds. According to the first model, the estimated MST was 2.73 years for women aged 50-59 and 3.30 for women aged 60-69. The estimated sensitivity of mammography was 73% for women aged 50-59 and 93% for women aged 60-69. As regards the second model, the estimated MST was 2.31 years for women aged 50- 59 and 3.12 for women aged 60-69. The estimated sensitivity of mammography was 84% for women aged 50-59 and 95% for women aged 60-69. Conclusion: Two year screening interval for mammography examinations is appropriate for programme in the Czech Republic. Sensitivity of mammography is adequate in age groups covered by the programme.
ER  -

BUREŠOVÁ, Lucie; Ondřej MÁJEK; Eva GELNAROVÁ; Jan DANEŠ; Helena BARTOŇKOVÁ; Miroslava SKOVAJSOVÁ a Ladislav DUŠEK. \textit{Estimation Of The Mean Sojourn Time And Sensitivity In Mammographic Screening Programme Using Bayesian Methods}. 2009.

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