J 2010

Monthly, seasonal and annual temperature reconstructions for Central Europe derived from documentary evidence and instrumental records since AD 1500

DOBROVOLNÝ, Petr; Anders MOBERG; Rudolf BRÁZDIL; Christian PFISTER; Ruediger GLASER et al.

Základní údaje

Originální název

Monthly, seasonal and annual temperature reconstructions for Central Europe derived from documentary evidence and instrumental records since AD 1500

Autoři

DOBROVOLNÝ, Petr; Anders MOBERG; Rudolf BRÁZDIL; Christian PFISTER; Ruediger GLASER; Rob WILSON; Aryan VAN ENGELEN; Danuta LIMANOWKA; Andrea KISS; Monika BĚLÍNOVÁ; Jarmila BURIANOVÁ; Dirk RIEMANN; Juerg LUTERBACHER a Reinhard BOEHM

Vydání

Climatic Change, Dordrecht-Boston-London, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2010, 0165-0009

Další údaje

Jazyk

angličtina

Typ výsledku

Článek v odborném periodiku

Obor

10500 1.5. Earth and related environmental sciences

Stát vydavatele

Nizozemské království

Utajení

není předmětem státního či obchodního tajemství

Impakt faktor

Impact factor: 3.016

Označené pro přenos do RIV

Ano

Kód RIV

RIV/00216224:14310/10:00058902

Organizační jednotka

Přírodovědecká fakulta

Klíčová slova anglicky

Air Temparature; Documentary Evidence; Early Instrumental Measurements; Climate Reconstruction; Central Europe

Štítky

Příznaky

Mezinárodní význam, Recenzováno
Změněno: 12. 4. 2013 12:14, Ing. Andrea Mikešková

Anotace

V originále

Monthly temperature series for Central Europe back to AD 1500 are developed from documentary index series from Germany, Switzerland and the Czech Republic (1500-1854) and 11 instrumental temperature records (1760-2007). Documentary evidence from the Low Countries, the Carpathian Basin and Poland are used for cross-checking for earlier centuries. The instrumental station records are corrected for inhomogeneities, including insufficient radiation protection of early thermometers and the urban heat island effect. For overlapping period (1760-1854), the documentary data series correlate with instrumental temperatures, most strongly in winter (86% explained variance in January) and least in autumn (56% in September). For annual average temperatures, 81% of the variance is explained. Verification statistics indicate high reconstruction skill for most months and seasons. The last 20 years (since 1988) stand out as very likely the warmest 20-year period, accounting for the calibration uncertainty and decreases in proxy data quality before the calibration period. The new reconstruction displays a previously unobserved long-term decrease in DJF, MAM and JJA temperature variability over last five centuries. Compiled monthly, seasonal and annual series can be used to improve the robustness of gridded large-scale European temperature reconstructions and possible impact studies. Further improvement of the reconstruction would be achieved if documentary data from other European countries are further developed.